Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.</li>
<li>There could be 6 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US)</a> in December with most inclusions being high probability.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.


KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved - potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.</li>
<li>The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.</li>
<li>Due to the concerns on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)'s </a>business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.</li>
</ul>


The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved - potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.
The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.
Due to the concerns on Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)'s business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)</a> (PA Gooddoctor), which was spun off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (601318 CH)</a> and listed in May 2018, has announced a<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1114/2024111400573.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> change in use of proceeds</a>.</li>
<li>Part of that change includes the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.</li>
<li>The more interesting aspect is that a scrip dividend is also afforded, which should allow a stealth MBO from Ping An at zero premium.</li>
</ul>



Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK) (PA Gooddoctor), which was spun off from Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) and listed in May 2018, has announced a change in use of proceeds.
Part of that change includes the payment of a punchy HK$9.70/share special dividend.
The more interesting aspect is that a scrip dividend is also afforded, which should allow a stealth MBO from Ping An at zero premium.


2025 High Conviction: PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) - The Arb Is To Take The Stock

<ul>
<li>PAGD achieved a dual increase in revenue and profit in 25Q1, which was mainly driven by the revenue from F-end business and B-end corporate health management business (up 43% YoY).</li>
<li>We always question PAGD's capability of expanding new customers and business externally, apart from relying on the resource support of Ping A Group.This makes PAGD difficult to match high valuations.</li>
<li>Our forecast for 2025 revenue is RMB5.1 billion.If based on P/S of 3x, market value is RMB15.3 billion. Market value of RMB24 billion could be the peak of PAGD’s valuation</li>
</ul>


PAGD achieved a dual increase in revenue and profit in 25Q1, which was mainly driven by the revenue from F-end business and B-end corporate health management business (up 43% YoY).
We always question PAGD's capability of expanding new customers and business externally, apart from relying on the resource support of Ping A Group.This makes PAGD difficult to match high valuations.
Our forecast for 2025 revenue is RMB5.1 billion.If based on P/S of 3x, market value is RMB15.3 billion. Market value of RMB24 billion could be the peak of PAGD’s valuation


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results - Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.</li>
<li>The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.</li>
<li>Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.</li>
</ul>


PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.
The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.
Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

China

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited provides health care software solutions. The Company offers mobile platform for online consultation, hospital referral and appointment, health management, and wellness interaction services, as well as connects consumers and patients with health care resources. Ping An Healthcare and Technology serves customers in China.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

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