HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

<ul>
<li>PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.</li>
<li>The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.</li>
<li>Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.</li>
</ul>


PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.
The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.
Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.</li>
<li>Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.</li>
<li>PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.</li>
</ul>


Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.
Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.
PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.


Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

Equity Capital Markets

WeDoctor Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We Doctor's business structure has undergone significant changes. Its positioning has become the AI-enabled healthcare solutions provider. The current business model of We Doctor is To G (To Government) model.</li>
<li>Whether We Doctor can replicate Tianjin model in other cities is uncertain because it may not have deep connections/resources in new cities/regions. Profit model of AI+ healthcare isn’t yet clear.</li>
<li>We Doctor's Pre-IPO valuation has reached US$6.7 billion, which is too expensive. Reasonable valuation could be just US$1-2 billion, and should be lower than Ping An Good Doctor.</li>
</ul>


We Doctor's business structure has undergone significant changes. Its positioning has become the AI-enabled healthcare solutions provider. The current business model of We Doctor is To G (To Government) model.
Whether We Doctor can replicate Tianjin model in other cities is uncertain because it may not have deep connections/resources in new cities/regions. Profit model of AI+ healthcare isn’t yet clear.
We Doctor's Pre-IPO valuation has reached US$6.7 billion, which is too expensive. Reasonable valuation could be just US$1-2 billion, and should be lower than Ping An Good Doctor.


Pre-IPO We Doctor Holdings - The Good Story of AI May Not Turn Things Around

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  </li>
<li>My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.</li>
<li>I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?</li>
</ul>


According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  
My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?


We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

<ul>
<li>We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.</li>
<li>The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.  </li>
</ul>


We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.  


We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO

China

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited operates an online healthcare services platform in China, offering online consultations, hospital referrals, health management, and wellness services. The company provides a range of services including online diagnosis and treatment, health check-ups, and drug delivery through its mobile platform. It was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)