TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pinterest co-founder/CEO Ben Silbermann is replaced by Google exec Bill Ready.</li>
<li>Ready is a payments industry veteran and is perfectly suited to drive commerce adoption at Pinterest. </li>
<li>Unique pay package incentivizes Ready to succesfully pivot the business. </li>
</ul>


Pinterest co-founder/CEO Ben Silbermann is replaced by Google exec Bill Ready.
Ready is a payments industry veteran and is perfectly suited to drive commerce adoption at Pinterest. 
Unique pay package incentivizes Ready to succesfully pivot the business. 


<ul>
<li>Solid earnings call heightened our conviction in Facebook as a terrific long for the next year.</li>
<li>Reels monetization headwind will become a tailwind... just a question of when. TikTok threat is real, but Facebook knows how to clone other's innovations.</li>
<li>Apple IDFA issues not worsening, Facebook will figure this out eventually.</li>
</ul>


Solid earnings call heightened our conviction in Facebook as a terrific long for the next year.
Reels monetization headwind will become a tailwind... just a question of when. TikTok threat is real, but Facebook knows how to clone other's innovations.
Apple IDFA issues not worsening, Facebook will figure this out eventually.


<ul>
<li>Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.</li>
<li>Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.</li>
<li>Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.</li>
</ul>


Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.
Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.
Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.


Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

<ul>
<li>5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues</li>
<li>TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.</li>
<li>Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.</li>
</ul>


5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues
TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.
Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.


Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Headline Development</h2><p>Hertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go to Uber (UBER) drivers.  On top of this, Hertz will also invest significantly in EV charging infrastructure across its global operations.</p>

Headline DevelopmentHertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go to Uber (UBER) drivers.  On top of this, Hertz will also invest significantly in EV charging infrastructure across its global operations.

United States

Pinterest, Inc. operates and maintains social networking site. The Company provides online venue for personal photos, ideas, oddities, decorations, places to visit, recipes, and other items. Pinterest serves customers worldwide.

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Pinterest (PINS US)

Pinterest "Ready" For Commerce

We think Pinterest's hiring of Google Exec Bill Ready is an excellent choice. He scaled Braintree and Venmo and has run Google's commerce...he...

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 1Q22: TikTok-Ified

Positively addressed IDFA, spending, and monetization concerns. Facebook is massively undervalued. We think its worth at least $290, which is 50%...

Aaron Gabin

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #55

Hertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go...

Granite Bay Capital

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pinterest "Ready" For Commerce

We think Pinterest's hiring of Google Exec Bill Ready is an excellent choice. He scaled Braintree and Venmo and has run Google's commerce...he...

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 1Q22: TikTok-Ified

Positively addressed IDFA, spending, and monetization concerns. Facebook is massively undervalued. We think its worth at least $290, which is 50%...

Aaron Gabin

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

TikTok's threat doesn’t impact the wave of monetization opportunities related to commerce, messaging, and the metaverse. FB trading at the same...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #55

Hertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go...

Granite Bay Capital