'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/669/original/2020-07-01_05-28-36.png?1593548938" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143669"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/673/original/2020-07-01_06-01-59.png?1593550949" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143673"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>WASTE NOT.</strong>.- Waste treatment company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP)</a>'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However, the 19% and 24% cuts to both Operating and Net Income for the first half and full-year highlight the current decline in industrial activity in Japan is likely to be prolonged and, possibly, similar to that seen in 2009. The outlook for Daiseki's listed subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-eco-solution-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13776:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP)</a> is equally subdued.  Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-display-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8280:1" rel="noopener">Japan Display (6740 JP)</a> annual losses 'improved' to only ¥101 billion at the net level on ¥504 billion in sales, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a> revised down the soon-to-be-declared FY2020 Net Income by 66% relative to TTM on further Anime theme park write-offs. LCD/SPE specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marumae-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16671:1" rel="noopener">Marumae (6264 JP)</a> produced the best results of the day driven by a 38% year-on-year increase in quarterly sales.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>21 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 6 Positive / 3 Neutral / 12 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-3.2</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +0.2% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: 0.0ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>13 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 4 Positive / 2 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 5 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.6</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
WASTE NOT..- Waste treatment company Daiseki (9793 JP)'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However, the 19% and 24% cuts to both Operating and Net Income for the first half and full-year highlight the current decline in industrial activity in Japan is likely to be prolonged and, possibly, similar to that seen in 2009. The outlook for Daiseki's listed subsidiary Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP) is equally subdued.  Meanwhile, Japan Display (6740 JP) annual losses 'improved' to only ¥101 billion at the net level on ¥504 billion in sales, while Pasona (2168 JP) revised down the soon-to-be-declared FY2020 Net Income by 66% relative to TTM on further Anime theme park write-offs. LCD/SPE specialist Marumae (6264 JP) produced the best results of the day driven by a 38% year-on-year increase in quarterly sales.

DAILY STATS

21 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 6 Positive / 3 Neutral / 12 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-3.2

Average % Change in Revenue: +0.2% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 0.0ppt
 13 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 4 Positive / 2 Neutral / 7 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 5 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.6


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th June - Waste Not..

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last autumn, Advantage Partners launched an MBO on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pipedo-hd-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26982:1" rel="noopener">Pipedo HD Inc (3919 JP)</a> where an activist/y presence threatened to be able to block it. Partway through, shares popped.</li>
<li>The MBO was unsuccessful. Now they are back, at the same price, and now they have arranged a side deal with the activist-y holder. So now it is stitched up. </li>
<li>There could easily be people unhappy with the structure of this deal, especially as book value is up 16%, and projected cashflows 8-10% higher than last time. </li>
</ul>


Last autumn, Advantage Partners launched an MBO on Pipedo HD Inc (3919 JP) where an activist/y presence threatened to be able to block it. Partway through, shares popped.
The MBO was unsuccessful. Now they are back, at the same price, and now they have arranged a side deal with the activist-y holder. So now it is stitched up. 
There could easily be people unhappy with the structure of this deal, especially as book value is up 16%, and projected cashflows 8-10% higher than last time. 


PipeDo Holdings (3919) MBO - Advantage Again, This Time It's a Stitch-Up

<ul>
<li>Sawada/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hs-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">HS Holdings (8699 JP)</a> yesterday announced it would receive a large dividend from its namesake brokerage business, and then announced it would sell it to its own 2nd largest shareholder. </li>
<li>Then HS Holdings said it would buy back up to 23% of its shares out this morning in a ToSTNeT-3 transaction. </li>
<li>The sale of what was its second most important remaining asset is good. Buying back shares below book is normally good. </li>
</ul>


Sawada/HS Holdings (8699 JP) yesterday announced it would receive a large dividend from its namesake brokerage business, and then announced it would sell it to its own 2nd largest shareholder. 
Then HS Holdings said it would buy back up to 23% of its shares out this morning in a ToSTNeT-3 transaction. 
The sale of what was its second most important remaining asset is good. Buying back shares below book is normally good. 


Sawada/HS Holdings (8699) - A Quite Salutary Development.. And We Wait...

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<p>Japan-based Information Asset Platform business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pipedo-hd-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26982:1" rel="noopener">Pipedo HD Inc (3919 JP)</a> announced on 30th September 2021 that they had received a Management Buy-out Offer (MBO) from the CEO and Advantage Partners. </p><p>The Deal will be structured as a Tender Offer. The Offer Price is ¥2,800/share in cash and the Tender Offer Period is open from 1st October 2021 to 15th November 2021. The Settlement Date will be 22nd November 2021.    </p><p>Despite initially trading through Terms, Pipedo shares are currently trading marginally below the Offer Price. </p><p><em>More below the fold</em></p>

Japan-based Information Asset Platform business Pipedo HD Inc (3919 JP) announced on 30th September 2021 that they had received a Management Buy-out Offer (MBO) from the CEO and Advantage Partners. The Deal will be structured as a Tender Offer. The Offer Price is ¥2,800/share in cash and the Tender Offer Period is open from 1st October 2021 to 15th November 2021. The Settlement Date will be 22nd November 2021.    Despite initially trading through Terms, Pipedo shares are currently trading marginally below the Offer Price. More below the fold

Pipedo HD (3919 JP): Advantage Partners MBO

Japan

PiPEDO HD, Inc. provides a web-based platform for information managements. The company also provides advertisements strategy and other web solutions.

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Pipedo HD Inc (3919 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th June - Waste Not..

WASTE NOT..- Waste treatment company Daiseki (9793 JP)'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However,...

Campbell Gunn

PipeDo Holdings (3919) MBO - Advantage Again, This Time It's a Stitch-Up

Advantage Partners launched an MBO Tender last fall which failed. This time they struck a side deal with the activist who blocked last time so now...

Travis Lundy

Sawada/HS Holdings (8699) - A Quite Salutary Development.. And We Wait...

Sawada/HS Holdings (8699) had a non-salutary development 10 days ago selling a stake in Khan Bank at a discount to book, but just bought back 21%...

Travis Lundy

Pipedo HD (3919 JP): Advantage Partners MBO

Japan-based Information Asset Platform business Pipedo received a MBO Offer from Advantage Partners. The Offer Price is JPY2,800/share and the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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