Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 13th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD37.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries, Evolution Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 13th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD37.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries, Evolution Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 13th): Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today&rsquo;s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative surprises, but the key swing factor over the past month appears to have been the 25% slide in the iron ore price, reflecting lower steel demand associated with renewed weakness in Chinese housing markets but also a lift in expected future iron ore production. Importantly, short-term gyrations in volatile commodity markets are unlikely to sway the RBA, nor does the the slide in the iron ore price provide a positive narrative to ease monetary policy. The RBA has plenty of scope to cut interest rates: the economy remains stuck in a nominal recession, revenue conditions are subdued, there is still considerable slack in the labour market, growth in private sector wages has reached a record low and the inflation outlook does not pose an obstacle to another rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; But the central bank will likely wait for another month.

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today&rsquo;s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative surprises, but the key swing factor over the past month appears to have been the 25% slide in the iron ore price, reflecting lower steel demand associated with renewed weakness in Chinese housing markets but also a lift in expected future iron ore production. Importantly, short-term gyrations in volatile commodity markets are unlikely to sway the RBA, nor does the the slide in the iron ore price provide a positive narrative to ease monetary policy. The RBA has plenty of scope to cut interest rates: the economy remains stuck in a nominal recession, revenue conditions are subdued, there is still considerable slack in the labour market, growth in private sector wages has reached a record low and the inflation outlook does not pose an obstacle to another rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; But the central bank will likely wait for another month.

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 9nd March, published ~9AM on the 13th March.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Diversified Metals/Mining". Net shorts decreased A$1.5bn WoW.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silex-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20181:1" rel="noopener">Silex Systems (SLX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health (RHC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News (NWS AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 9nd March, published ~9AM on the 13th March.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Diversified Metals/Mining". Net shorts decreased A$1.5bn WoW.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), Silex Systems (SLX AU), Ramsay Health (RHC AU), and News (NWS AU).


Aussie Shorts (9th Mar 2026): CBA, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Silex Systems, Ramsay Health, News

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Jiaxin International Resources Investment / Index Rebalance

Jiaxin International Resources Investment (3858 HK)

Jiaxin International Resources Investment

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiaxin-international-resources-investment-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45065:1" rel="noopener">Jiaxin International Resources Investment (3858 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-antimony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38018:1" rel="noopener">United States Antimony (UAMY US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> in March.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, listing switches, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 13.4% and in a round-trip trade of US$1.07bn.</li>
<li>AUM linked to the index continues to rise as both ETFs continue to take in assets. That increases the flow and impact on the index constituents.</li>
</ul>



Jiaxin International Resources Investment (3858 HK) and United States Antimony (UAMY US) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in March.
The constituent changes, listing switches, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 13.4% and in a round-trip trade of US$1.07bn.
AUM linked to the index continues to rise as both ETFs continue to take in assets. That increases the flow and impact on the index constituents.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 2 Adds & Other Changes; US$1.1bn Trade

Australia

PLS Group Limited operates as a mining and exploration company. The Company focuses on the exploration and development of hard rock lithium projects, as well as manufactures battery materials. PLS Group serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
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PLS Group (PLS AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 13th): Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today’s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative...

Sam Ferraro

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past...

Sam Ferraro

Aussie Shorts (9th Mar 2026): CBA, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Silex Systems, Ramsay Health, News

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), Silex Systems...

David Blennerhassett

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 2 Adds & Other Changes; US$1.1bn Trade

There are 2 adds and 1 listing switch for the REMX in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 13.4% and the round-trip trade is US$1.07bn. There have...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 13th): Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today’s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative...

Sam Ferraro

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past...

Sam Ferraro

Aussie Shorts (9th Mar 2026): CBA, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Silex Systems, Ramsay Health, News

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), Silex Systems...

David Blennerhassett

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 2 Adds & Other Changes; US$1.1bn Trade

There are 2 adds and 1 listing switch for the REMX in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 13.4% and the round-trip trade is US$1.07bn. There have...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 2 Adds & Other Changes; US$1.1bn Trade