European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

There are two approvals pending:
<ul>
<li>
New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (PRC)
</li>
<li>
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
</li>
</ul>
PRC hearing examiner, Ashley Schannauer, wants Avangrid to address concerns and explain why the company didn't make some disclosures ($25 million in penalties and disallowances for poor service over the past 16 months). The hearing examiner order directs the filing companies to submit response proposals by 18 May and tentatively scheduled a status conference to determine next steps by 28 May.
Meanwhile Iberdrola has posted solid Q1 results and has announced that it will subscribe to 81.5% ($3,260 mn) of Avangrid's $4 bn increase, with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA, top shareholder in Iberdrola with a 6% stake) subscribing the remaining $740 mn.
<div>
The concerns of the PRC hearing examiner, although legitimate in my view, are more akin to a public dress down "you kids have been very naughty", but should not significantly delay the approvals needed for the acquisition of PNM. The deal seems on track for completion during H2 2021.
PNM closed on 12 May at $49.15, vs. an offer price of $50.3.
</div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>which represents a gross spread of 2.3%, c. 4.6% annualized (assuming the deal completes in six months), which I consider attractive for a low-risk deal that is almost certainly to close in H2 2021.</li>
<li>Reiterate Long PNM.</li>
</ul>

There are two approvals pending:


New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (PRC)


Nuclear Regulatory Commission


PRC hearing examiner, Ashley Schannauer, wants Avangrid to address concerns and explain why the company didn't make some disclosures ($25 million in penalties and disallowances for poor service over the past 16 months). The hearing examiner order directs the filing companies to submit response proposals by 18 May and tentatively scheduled a status conference to determine next steps by 28 May.
Meanwhile Iberdrola has posted solid Q1 results and has announced that it will subscribe to 81.5% ($3,260 mn) of Avangrid's $4 bn increase, with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA, top shareholder in Iberdrola with a 6% stake) subscribing the remaining $740 mn.

The concerns of the PRC hearing examiner, although legitimate in my view, are more akin to a public dress down "you kids have been very naughty", but should not significantly delay the approvals needed for the acquisition of PNM. The deal seems on track for completion during H2 2021.
PNM closed on 12 May at $49.15, vs. an offer price of $50.3.


which represents a gross spread of 2.3%, c. 4.6% annualized (assuming the deal completes in six months), which I consider attractive for a low-risk deal that is almost certainly to close in H2 2021.
Reiterate Long PNM.


Iberdrola (Avangrid)/PNM Resources: Regulator's Reprimand and Capital Increase

Iberdrola, via its subsidiary Avangri,d announced the acquisition of PNM on 21 October.announced the merger of both companies.
<ul>
<li>Under the proposed transaction, shareholders of PNM will receive $50.30 per share, in cash, representing a premium of 10% over PNM's share price as of Oct. 20, 2020.</li>
<li>for a transaction value, as reported, of $8,300 mn and $4,342 mn in total consideration to shareholders.</li>
<li>11.7x EV/Fwd EBITA and 24.,4x P/Fwd EPS.</li>
</ul>
The hurdles are being cleared (read on for details) and the transaction is expected to close by the end of December.
PNM began trading on 12 January at $48.41,
<ul>
<li>which represents a gross spread of 3.75%, which I consider attractive for alow-risk deal that is almost certainly to close by the end of December 2021, i.e. almost a year.</li>
<li>Recommendation is LONG PNM.</li>
<li>Average 3-months daily volume is 2,012,899</li>
</ul>

Iberdrola, via its subsidiary Avangri,d announced the acquisition of PNM on 21 October.announced the merger of both companies.

Under the proposed transaction, shareholders of PNM will receive $50.30 per share, in cash, representing a premium of 10% over PNM's share price as of Oct. 20, 2020.
for a transaction value, as reported, of $8,300 mn and $4,342 mn in total consideration to shareholders.
11.7x EV/Fwd EBITA and 24.,4x P/Fwd EPS.

The hurdles are being cleared (read on for details) and the transaction is expected to close by the end of December.
PNM began trading on 12 January at $48.41,

which represents a gross spread of 3.75%, which I consider attractive for alow-risk deal that is almost certainly to close by the end of December 2021, i.e. almost a year.
Recommendation is LONG PNM.
Average 3-months daily volume is 2,012,899


PNM Resources - Iberdrola, Work-In-Progress, Attractive Spread

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all holding above their respective short-term support levels and market dynamics remain positive. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Services, Transportation, &amp; Utilities: Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, Auctions, Vehicle Rentals/Leasing, Electric, Southwest

The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all holding above their respective short-term support levels and market dynamics remain positive. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Services, Transportation, &amp; Utilities: Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, Auctions, Vehicle Rentals/Leasing, Electric, Southwest

U. S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communications

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iberdrola-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21276:1" rel="noopener">Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)</a> accelerates its expansion in the United States. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avangrid-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26503:1" rel="noopener">Avangrid Inc (AGR US)</a> , an 81.5% Iberdrola controlled company has announced an agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pnm-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16546:1" rel="noopener">Pnm Resources (PNM US)</a>, a New Mexico and Texas power company listed on the NYSE.
Iberdrola offers $50.3 in cash, for a total equity value of $4,317.5 mn (€3,663.5 mn), according to a relevant fact sent to the CNMV. Iberdrola has undertaken to provide Avangrid with "the funds that are necessary" for the price of the transaction.
The offer price represents:
<ul>
<li>10% premium over PNM's price per share at the close of Tuesday 20 October and 19.3% premium to PNM Resources 30-day VWAP</li>
<li>22.8x Capital IQ's consensus P/E estimate</li>
<li>2.2x P/BV</li>
<li>12.6x EV/Forward EBITDA vs. 10.9x for comparable companies.</li>
</ul>
The proposed transaction is all cash and I do not see obvious regulatory issues, therefore I expect the merger arbitrage spread to narrow quickly.

Iberdrola SA (IBE SM) accelerates its expansion in the United States. Avangrid Inc (AGR US) , an 81.5% Iberdrola controlled company has announced an agreement to acquire Pnm Resources (PNM US), a New Mexico and Texas power company listed on the NYSE.
Iberdrola offers $50.3 in cash, for a total equity value of $4,317.5 mn (€3,663.5 mn), according to a relevant fact sent to the CNMV. Iberdrola has undertaken to provide Avangrid with "the funds that are necessary" for the price of the transaction.
The offer price represents:

10% premium over PNM's price per share at the close of Tuesday 20 October and 19.3% premium to PNM Resources 30-day VWAP
22.8x Capital IQ's consensus P/E estimate
2.2x P/BV
12.6x EV/Forward EBITDA vs. 10.9x for comparable companies.

The proposed transaction is all cash and I do not see obvious regulatory issues, therefore I expect the merger arbitrage spread to narrow quickly.

PNM Resources - Iberdrola: Friendly Acquisition

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

United States

PNM Resources Inc. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, generates, transmits, and distributes electricity.

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PNM Resources (PNM US)

Iberdrola (Avangrid)/PNM Resources: Regulator's Reprimand and Capital Increase

PRC's concerns delay the approvals needed. The deal seems on track for completion during H2 2021. Gross spread 2.3%, c. 4.6% annualized (assuming...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

PNM Resources - Iberdrola, Work-In-Progress, Attractive Spread

PNM began trading on 12 January at $48.41, a gross spread of 3.75%, which I consider attractive for a low-risk deal that is almost certainly to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U. S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communications

We are upgrading Utilities and downgrading Communications. We recap important technical levels across major indexes and share actionable ideas...

Vermilion Research

PNM Resources - Iberdrola: Friendly Acquisition

Iberdrola offers $50.3 in cash. Iberdrola has undertaken to provide Avangrid with the necessary funds. I do not see any obvious regulatory issues,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for...

Vermilion Research

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