Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  </li>
<li>In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. </li>
<li>Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  </li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  


Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

FineToday Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP)</a>, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the investment thesis in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/finetoday-holdings-420a-jp-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:204929" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings (420A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
I previously discussed the investment thesis in FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.


FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP)</a> (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


FineToday Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP)</a> (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about the updates from its most recent filings.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about the updates from its most recent filings.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a>, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.  </li>
<li>FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage. </li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.  
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.
The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage. 


FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

Japan

POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS INC. develops, manufactures and markets cosmetic products, centering in skincare  products. Under its multi-brand strategy, the Company holds nine cosmetic brands including POLA, prestige skincare brand, ORBIS, oil-free skincare brand, H2O PLUS and Jurlique.

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Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

FineToday Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

FineToday Pre-IPO - Refiling Updates

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

FineToday, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

​Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

FineToday Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

FineToday Pre-IPO - Refiling Updates

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

FineToday, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.