IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

FineToday Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a> is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/finetoday-holdings-289a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:167184" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
In FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.


FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a> is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.   </li>
<li>FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue. </li>
<li>The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation. </li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.   
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue. 
The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation. 


FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a> in Japan.</li>
<li>FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


FineToday Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Growth and Margins Have Wavered

<ul>
<li>CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a> in Japan.</li>
<li>FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


FineToday Pre-IPO - The Positives - Established Brands Across Multiple Regions

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> has increased the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.</li>
<li>Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.</li>
<li>The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed. </li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) has increased the Fancl Corp (4921 JP) tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.
Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.
The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed. 


Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

Japan

POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS INC. develops, manufactures and markets cosmetic products, centering in skincare  products. Under its multi-brand strategy, the Company holds nine cosmetic brands including POLA, prestige skincare brand, ORBIS, oil-free skincare brand, H2O PLUS and Jurlique.

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Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the weak 3Q24 revenue performance, mid-tier revenue growth, leveraged balance sheet, share overhang and pre-IPO dividend.

Arun George

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

FineToday Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Growth and Margins Have Wavered

CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

FineToday Pre-IPO - The Positives - Established Brands Across Multiple Regions

CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

MY.Alpha has increased its shareholding from 10.3m (8.51% ownership ratio) to 11.6m (9.58%) primarily due to purchasing 1.1m shares at JPY2,794 on...

Arun George

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