Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Evergrande Property Services Group / Event-Driven

Evergrande Property Services Group (6666 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> notes that the liquidators have entered into the final stage of the process by entering into an exclusivity agreement with a selected bidder.</li>
<li>The exclusivity period runs for 30 business days. i.e., until 20 May. The sale, when completed, will trigger an unconditional mandatory general offer.</li>
<li>The identity of the bidder and the sale price are unknown. My analysis suggests an offer price range of HK$1.40 to HK$1.50 (14.8% to 23.0% premium to the last close).</li>
</ul>



Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) notes that the liquidators have entered into the final stage of the process by entering into an exclusivity agreement with a selected bidder.
The exclusivity period runs for 30 business days. i.e., until 20 May. The sale, when completed, will trigger an unconditional mandatory general offer.
The identity of the bidder and the sale price are unknown. My analysis suggests an offer price range of HK$1.40 to HK$1.50 (14.8% to 23.0% premium to the last close).


Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Entering the Final Stages Towards an Unconditional MGO

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. </li>
<li>A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.</li>
<li>Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.</li>
</ul>


Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. 
A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.
Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.


China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

<ul>
<li>Quality developers are said to be supported by NAFMII to issue M&amp;A bonds with a long maturity to acquire real estate projects from troubled developers</li>
<li>This adds further fuel to the rumour that financing for M&amp;A activity will be outside of the three red lines</li>
<li>The Politburo December meeting provided a positive signal for property policy that is expected to be echoed in the Central Economic Work Conference statement this week</li>
</ul>


Quality developers are said to be supported by NAFMII to issue M&amp;A bonds with a long maturity to acquire real estate projects from troubled developers
This adds further fuel to the rumour that financing for M&amp;A activity will be outside of the three red lines
The Politburo December meeting provided a positive signal for property policy that is expected to be echoed in the Central Economic Work Conference statement this week


China State-Owned Developer Plans to Issue M&A Bonds on Interbank Market

<ul>
<li>The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII), held a discussion meeting joined by representatives from real estate developers.</li>
<li>The meeting could signal that regulators might ease domestic bond issuance for developers.</li>
<li>We believe that the market has been over-pessimistic on the real estate sector.</li>
</ul>


The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII), held a discussion meeting joined by representatives from real estate developers.
The meeting could signal that regulators might ease domestic bond issuance for developers.
We believe that the market has been over-pessimistic on the real estate sector.


Developers Said To Plan Raising Funds Through Interbank Debt Issuance

China

Poly Property Services is a China-based company primarily engaged in providing property management services, community value-added services, and value-added services to non-property owners. Its property management services encompass security, cleaning, greening, gardening, and maintenance for property owners, residents, and developers. The company was established on June 26, 1996, and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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Poly Property Services (6049 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Entering the Final Stages Towards an Unconditional MGO

Selecting a final bidder brings the process closer to an unconditional MGO. My analysis suggests an offer price range of HK$1.40 to HK$1.50 per share.

Arun George

China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a Rmb3.8trn special purpose bond quota suggested government spending will remain important economic driver. More...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China State-Owned Developer Plans to Issue M&A Bonds on Interbank Market

The new move adds further fuel to the rumour that financing for M&A activity will be outside of the three red lines,This is a crucial development...

Li Tang

Developers Said To Plan Raising Funds Through Interbank Debt Issuance

We believe that the market has been over-pessimistic on the real estate sector. The meeting could signal that regulators might ease domestic bond...

Li Tang

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