Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NPCSC pushed forward with the property tax by granting the State Council authority to pilot it in certain regions for five years with the purpose to guide reasonable property consumption.
China has discussed the property tax plan and even launched pilot programs in Shanghai and Southwest China's Chongqing as early as 2011. The widening of the property pilot progamme would shake the real estates market,property-related industries, such as the steel and cement sectors. However,the tax may be neutral over the long-term for developers due to the expectation that the existing administrative controlling measures would be gradually removed after the implementation of the tax. Moreover, tax burdens would be moved from the construction stage to home transaction and holding phases, i.e. from developers to homeowners/ speculators.

The NPCSC pushed forward with the property tax by granting the State Council authority to pilot it in certain regions for five years with the purpose to guide reasonable property consumption.
China has discussed the property tax plan and even launched pilot programs in Shanghai and Southwest China's Chongqing as early as 2011. The widening of the property pilot progamme would shake the real estates market,property-related industries, such as the steel and cement sectors. However,the tax may be neutral over the long-term for developers due to the expectation that the existing administrative controlling measures would be gradually removed after the implementation of the tax. Moreover, tax burdens would be moved from the construction stage to home transaction and holding phases, i.e. from developers to homeowners/ speculators.

State Council to Pilot Property Tax in Certain Regions for Five Years

The China Real Estate Association (CREA) reportedly summoned 10 key developers to a discussion meeting last Friday, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26076:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (000002 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-investment-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment (688 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gemdale-corp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14908:1" rel="noopener">Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongliang-holdings-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28009:1" rel="noopener">Zhongliang Holdings (2772 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24242:1" rel="noopener">Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd. (601155 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greentown-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8954:1" rel="noopener">Greentown China (3900 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cifi-holdings-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18387:1" rel="noopener">CIFI Holdings (884 HK)</a> , who were required to send senior executives at vice president or above levels.

The China Real Estate Association (CREA) reportedly summoned 10 key developers to a discussion meeting last Friday, including China Vanke (000002 CH) , Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) , China Overseas Land &amp; Investment (688 HK) , Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH) , Longfor Properties (960 HK)Zhongliang Holdings (2772 HK) , Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd. (601155 CH) , Greentown China (3900 HK) , and CIFI Holdings (884 HK) , who were required to send senior executives at vice president or above levels.

China Real Estate Association Summoned Key Developers as PBOC Hints Policy Finetuning

We have seen a shift in the property policy stance from comprehensive tightening to finetuning policy, which includes some significant local easing such as the raft of measures announced in Harbin as well restarted RMBS issuance that is expected to top up mortgage quotas.
Two recent PBOC meetings affirmed the importance of “healthy property market development” and protecting homebuyers’ rights. This means that policymakers want the property market to be not too hot (as it was late last year) and not too cold.
The backdrop is the Evergrande crisis, based on high liabilities and triggered by plummeting home sales, but also expected growth pressures as the pandemic continues and with power shortages.

We have seen a shift in the property policy stance from comprehensive tightening to finetuning policy, which includes some significant local easing such as the raft of measures announced in Harbin as well restarted RMBS issuance that is expected to top up mortgage quotas.
Two recent PBOC meetings affirmed the importance of “healthy property market development” and protecting homebuyers’ rights. This means that policymakers want the property market to be not too hot (as it was late last year) and not too cold.
The backdrop is the Evergrande crisis, based on high liabilities and triggered by plummeting home sales, but also expected growth pressures as the pandemic continues and with power shortages.

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 746px;">Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 746px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/144/original/image_45072834061624549646155.png?1624549646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215144"></figure>
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Related Insights
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-financials-silver-linings-playbook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53013" rel="noopener">China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-we-might-see-snow-in-china-this-summer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52840" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-operation-twist-the-deposit-version" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53435" rel="noopener">China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-consumers-remain-on-the-sidelines-as-their-home-equity-grows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53210" rel="noopener">China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows</a> </li>
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For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.



Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)




Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis




Related Insights


China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook 

Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 

China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version 

China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 

China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 

China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 


China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Vice-Premier Liu He wrote an article in the people's Daily on China's 'dual circulation' strategy on Wednesday in which he noted that the real estate industry influences investment and consumption, and is connected to people's livelihoods and development. Liu's speech maintains existing top-level property policy, but at the same time relates property to investment and consumption, implying that property policy setting could be considered jointly with investment and consumption targets. This suggests a more pragmatic approach towards property policy weighting up risks against growth benefits.
Rumour spread in the market that regulator will tighten the trust funding quota approved due to a risk concern, fears were quick to emerge of a liquidity squeeze for some of China's indebted developer, causing its shares and bonds to tumble. However, in the last week we have seen several cities such as Harbin in last week issuing the policy to support property sales. Those can be seen as policy support for the sector.

Vice-Premier Liu He wrote an article in the people's Daily on China's 'dual circulation' strategy on Wednesday in which he noted that the real estate industry influences investment and consumption, and is connected to people's livelihoods and development. Liu's speech maintains existing top-level property policy, but at the same time relates property to investment and consumption, implying that property policy setting could be considered jointly with investment and consumption targets. This suggests a more pragmatic approach towards property policy weighting up risks against growth benefits.
Rumour spread in the market that regulator will tighten the trust funding quota approved due to a risk concern, fears were quick to emerge of a liquidity squeeze for some of China's indebted developer, causing its shares and bonds to tumble. However, in the last week we have seen several cities such as Harbin in last week issuing the policy to support property sales. Those can be seen as policy support for the sector.

China's Real Estate Sector to Be Tightened

China

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. mainly develops and sells residential homes. The company is also in the business of leasing and rental of real estates, and property management.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

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Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

State Council to Pilot Property Tax in Certain Regions for Five Years

The widen of property tax pilot progamme would shake the real estates market,property-related industries, such as the steel and cement sectors.

Li Tang

China Real Estate Association Summoned Key Developers as PBOC Hints Policy Finetuning

We see a short-term opportunity to buy high-quality, low leveraged developers in advance of further calibrated policy support.

Li Tang

China Real Estate:Easing Builds Momentum

We have seen a shift in the property policy stance from comprehensive tightening to finetuning policy, which includes some significant local easing...

Li Tang

China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Housing FAI in May continued a secular trend that may make or break China's recovery. Inventory drawdowns may afford developers some breathing...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Real Estate Sector to Be Tightened

Overall property policies lean towards tightening.The change will constrain highly leveraged developers mostly but providing opportunities for...

Li Tang

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