Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> ended on 30 June, the results will be announced on 22 August and will be implemented on 5 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> could be added to the index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> could be deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There is a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as well.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the HSCEI INDEX ended on 30 June, the results will be announced on 22 August and will be implemented on 5 September.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could be added to the index while J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) could be deleted from the index.
There is a possibility of Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as well.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe Pop Mart’s advantage is its ability of choosing available IPs.</li>
<li>We expect Pop Mart’s revenue will grow by 69% in 2025.</li>
<li>However, the stock is overvalued by cross-sectional comparison and fairly valued by time-series comparison.</li>
</ul>


We believe Pop Mart’s advantage is its ability of choosing available IPs.
We expect Pop Mart’s revenue will grow by 69% in 2025.
However, the stock is overvalued by cross-sectional comparison and fairly valued by time-series comparison.


Pop Mart (9992 HK): On IP Choice, But Not Blind Boxes, Waiting for Lower Price

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)</a>  opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.</li>
<li>The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.</li>
<li>Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and  lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings. </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)  opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and  lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings. 


Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.</li>
<li>Based on the latest data, we see one ADD and one DEL.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.
Based on the latest data, we see one ADD and one DEL.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Change Likely; US$245mn One-Way Flow

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group (390 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities (6099 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.</li>
<li>There are a lot of shorts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)</a> and China <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a>.   </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US). 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).   


FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

China

Pop Mart International Group Limited operates as a toys wholesales company. The Company provides trendy toys designing, production, marketing, and other services. Pop Mart International Group markets its products worldwide.

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Pop Mart (9992 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)

Pop Mart could replace J&T Global in the HSCEI in Sep. There will be capping and FAF changes for stocks. Shorts have been increasing in both...

Brian Freitas

Pop Mart (9992 HK): On IP Choice, But Not Blind Boxes, Waiting for Lower Price

We believe Pop Mart’s advantage is its ability of choosing IPs. We expect Pop Mart’s revenue will grow by 69% in 2025. However, the stock is fairly...

Ming Lu

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?

Pop Mart offers investors with high risk appetite and long term conviction, a growth story that’s still unfolding. Valuation multiples are rich but...

Devi Subhakesan

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Change Likely; US$245mn One-Way Flow

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could replace J&T Global Express (1519 HK) in the HSCEI index during the September 2025 index review.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart and SF Holdings replace China Railway and China Merchant Securities in the FXI ETF at the close on 20 June. SF Holding will also be added...

Brian Freitas

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