HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In bleak consumption environment, Pop Mart is definitely an "outsider".Explanations such as "lipstick effect" are more like a self-consistent logic, which may have some sense, but doesn’t constitute core contradiction.</li>
<li>To truly understand the investment value of Pop Mart, it’s necessary to assess future growth potential.We think overseas revenue could reach RMB16-17 billion in 2025 and RMB42 billion in 2026.</li>
<li>Net profit CAGR in 2024-2026 could be about 79.5%. Pop Mart would still maintain high growth in short-term. But after 2026, there are uncertainties of channel policies and IP-driven factors.</li>
</ul>


In bleak consumption environment, Pop Mart is definitely an "outsider".Explanations such as "lipstick effect" are more like a self-consistent logic, which may have some sense, but doesn’t constitute core contradiction.
To truly understand the investment value of Pop Mart, it’s necessary to assess future growth potential.We think overseas revenue could reach RMB16-17 billion in 2025 and RMB42 billion in 2026.
Net profit CAGR in 2024-2026 could be about 79.5%. Pop Mart would still maintain high growth in short-term. But after 2026, there are uncertainties of channel policies and IP-driven factors.


Pop Mart (9992 HK) - Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.</li>
<li>We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL</a> completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2025 index rebal event will be publicly announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> to be an ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> to be a DEL in HSCEI in September 2025.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2025 index rebal event will be publicly announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
We continue to expect Pop Mart (9992 HK) to be an ADD and J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) to be a DEL in HSCEI in September 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon

One-Stop Financial Services, uSMART Securities Pte Ltd

uSMART Securities

One-Stop Financial Services

uSMART Securities Pte Ltd

uSMART Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd (uSMART SG),is a leading securities company regulated by MAS and we hold a Capital Markets Services (CMS) License under the Securities and Futures Act 2001. We provide smart, professional and outstanding one-stop financial services to our clients, to best serve investors' needs and investment journey.

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart has established itself as a global leader in the designer toy industry, achieving high growth and profitability through its proprietary IP portfolio, blind box sales model, and an omnichannel strategy that integrates both online and offline operations.</li>
<li>In 2024, revenue surged 106.9% YoY to RMB 13.04 billion, with a record-high gross margin of 66.8%. Core IPs such as Labubu and Molly drove sales momentum and brand visibility, pushing membership to 46.08 million, with a repurchase rate of 49.4% and members contributing 92.7% of total sales.</li>
<li>
<strong>Strategically</strong>, the company focuses on an “IP + blind box” emotional consumption model, cultivating a strong collectible culture.</li>
</ul>


Pop Mart has established itself as a global leader in the designer toy industry, achieving high growth and profitability through its proprietary IP portfolio, blind box sales model, and an omnichannel strategy that integrates both online and offline operations.
In 2024, revenue surged 106.9% YoY to RMB 13.04 billion, with a record-high gross margin of 66.8%. Core IPs such as Labubu and Molly drove sales momentum and brand visibility, pushing membership to 46.08 million, with a repurchase rate of 49.4% and members contributing 92.7% of total sales.

Strategically, the company focuses on an “IP + blind box” emotional consumption model, cultivating a strong collectible culture.


Pop Mart (9992.HK): A Global Leader in the Designer Toy Industry

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.</li>
<li>We expect one ADD and one DEL for September 2025. We also estimate there to be US$269mn in one-way flows.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.
We expect one ADD and one DEL for September 2025. We also estimate there to be US$269mn in one-way flows.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: Final Expectations; One Index Change Possible

China

Pop Mart International Group Limited operates as a toys wholesales company. The Company provides trendy toys designing, production, marketing, and other services. Pop Mart International Group markets its products worldwide.

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Pop Mart (9992 HK)

Pop Mart (9992 HK) - Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast

Pop Mart's investment value lies in growth potential, with projected overseas revenue reaching RMB16bn in 2025, RMB42bn in 2026. There're...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

We highlight 6 potential adds to the HSI in Sep. CATL has an outside chance of inclusion. Estimated turnover is less than 3% and the trade is...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon

Both the expected ADD and DEL are high-conviction calls. They have been well-flagged for a long time now. It might be reasonable to assume there is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pop Mart (9992.HK): A Global Leader in the Designer Toy Industry

Pop Mart has established itself as a global leader in the designer toy industry, achieving high growth and profitability through its proprietary...

uSMART Securities

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: Final Expectations; One Index Change Possible

Pop Mart (9992 HK) could replace J&T Global (1519 HK) in the HSCEI index in September 2025. If this change takes place, there could be one-way...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Pop Mart (9992 HK) - Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast

​Pop Mart's investment value lies in growth potential, with projected overseas revenue reaching RMB16bn in 2025, RMB42bn in 2026. There're...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

We highlight 6 potential adds to the HSI in Sep. CATL has an outside chance of inclusion. Estimated turnover is less than 3% and the trade is...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon

Both the expected ADD and DEL are high-conviction calls. They have been well-flagged for a long time now. It might be reasonable to assume there is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pop Mart (9992.HK): A Global Leader in the Designer Toy Industry

Pop Mart has established itself as a global leader in the designer toy industry, achieving high growth and profitability through its proprietary...

uSMART Securities

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: Final Expectations; One Index Change Possible

Pop Mart (9992 HK) could replace J&T Global (1519 HK) in the HSCEI index in September 2025. If this change takes place, there could be one-way...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pop Mart's investment value lies in growth potential, with projected overseas revenue reaching RMB16bn in 2025, RMB42bn in 2026. There're...