European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Porsche SE, a holding company, controls 53.3% of Volkswagen (VW) and 25% (+1 share) of Porsche AG, leveraging a dual-class share structure to consolidate control with minimal economic stakes.</li>
<li>Net debt of €5.16 billion, accrued from the Porsche AG stake acquisition, relies heavily on VW and Porsche AG dividends for debt servicing, with CF uncertainties tied to VW's restructuring.</li>
<li>Porsche SE trades at a 31.8% discount to NAV, reflecting legal liabilities, debt reduction priorities, and holding structure complexities, but this discount could tighten to 20% as risks subside.</li>
</ul>


Porsche SE, a holding company, controls 53.3% of Volkswagen (VW) and 25% (+1 share) of Porsche AG, leveraging a dual-class share structure to consolidate control with minimal economic stakes.
Net debt of €5.16 billion, accrued from the Porsche AG stake acquisition, relies heavily on VW and Porsche AG dividends for debt servicing, with CF uncertainties tied to VW's restructuring.
Porsche SE trades at a 31.8% discount to NAV, reflecting legal liabilities, debt reduction priorities, and holding structure complexities, but this discount could tighten to 20% as risks subside.


High Conviction 2025: Porsche's SE Discount to NAV Reduction

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.8% (vs. 48.7% as of 29 November); GBL, 40.6% (vs. 40.9%); Heineken Holding, 14.4% (vs. 14%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 4.0% (vs. 2.4%); Investor B, 4.3% (vs. 2.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.8% (vs. 31.7%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.4% (vs. 22.5%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.8% (vs. 48.7% as of 29 November); GBL, 40.6% (vs. 40.9%); Heineken Holding, 14.4% (vs. 14%); 
Industrivärden C, 4.0% (vs. 2.4%); Investor B, 4.3% (vs. 2.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.8% (vs. 31.7%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.4% (vs. 22.5%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November'24 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 48.7% (vs. 46.6% as of 30 September); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 40.7%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14% (14.9%); Industrivärden C, 2.4% (0.9%); Investor B, 2.8% (vs. 2.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.7% (vs. 35%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. 26%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 48.7% (vs. 46.6% as of 30 September); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 40.7%);
Heineken Holding, 14% (14.9%); Industrivärden C, 2.4% (0.9%); Investor B, 2.8% (vs. 2.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.7% (vs. 35%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. 26%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October'24 Report

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Horizon Robotics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a> is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.


Horizon Robotics IPO - Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);
Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Germany

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers development, production, and sale of automobiles along with financial services. Porsche operates worldwide.

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Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)

High Conviction 2025: Porsche's SE Discount to NAV Reduction

Porsche SE is currently trading at a 31.8% discount to NAV. The discount will continue to tighten toward approximately 20% as legal claim risks...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered European holdcos mainly widened during November. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Horizon Robotics IPO - Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t

Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes, in...

Sumeet Singh

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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