European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October in line with the market recovery. </li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 48.7%; GBL, 34.4%; Heineken Holding, 18.3%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 16.8%; Porsche Automobile Holding 41.8%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.4%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October in line with the market recovery. 
Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 48.7%; GBL, 34.4%; Heineken Holding, 18.3%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 16.8%; Porsche Automobile Holding 41.8%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.4%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: October ‘22 Report

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

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<p>In our next Webinar, we welcome Analysts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sc-capital/analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chris Redl (SC Capital)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sameer-taneja-a0539e0c-84dd-4e66-9c40-6e598edfb4c5/analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sameer Taneja (Investics Research)</a>, who will be joined by Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor in an exciting discussion on the EV landscape in China.</p>
<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 21 October 2022, 11:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
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<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=86304030271" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
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<p>Chris Redl has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS &amp; Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff). His current focus is on electric vehicle stocks &amp; their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well.<br><br>Sameer Taneja is the founder of Investics Research, a firm that engages in bottom-up sectoral research, fundamental research of publicly listed companies as well as forensic analysis. He started his career as a sell-side analyst in a stockbroking firm called B&amp;K Securities (India) from 2004-07, covering the ferrous sector. From 2007-16 he worked as an investment analyst in a hedge fund called Kelusa Capital, covering the materials, utilities, construction &amp; heavy machinery, and the auto sector. He continued to work on the buy-side from 2017-19 in a firm called Skale Investments (with similar sectoral coverage), before founding Investics Research in 2019.</p>
<p>Raghav is the co-founder and CEO of Smartkarma.</p>

In our next Webinar, we welcome Analysts Chris Redl (SC Capital) and Sameer Taneja (Investics Research), who will be joined by Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor in an exciting discussion on the EV landscape in China.
The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 21 October 2022, 11:00 SGT/HKT.



Register for the Webinar here



Chris Redl has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS &amp; Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff). His current focus is on electric vehicle stocks &amp; their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well.  Sameer Taneja is the founder of Investics Research, a firm that engages in bottom-up sectoral research, fundamental research of publicly listed companies as well as forensic analysis. He started his career as a sell-side analyst in a stockbroking firm called B&amp;K Securities (India) from 2004-07, covering the ferrous sector. From 2007-16 he worked as an investment analyst in a hedge fund called Kelusa Capital, covering the materials, utilities, construction &amp; heavy machinery, and the auto sector. He continued to work on the buy-side from 2017-19 in a firm called Skale Investments (with similar sectoral coverage), before founding Investics Research in 2019.
Raghav is the co-founder and CEO of Smartkarma.

Smartkarma Webinar | China EVs: Sales Strong, Stocks Weak?! 🤨

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.
Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. </li>
<li>A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. </li>
<li>The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.</li>
</ul>


Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. 
A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. 
The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.


Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Volkswagen sets the price range for the Porsche AG IPO between €76.50 and €82.50. The books are covered several times. Porsche AG will begin trading on September 29.</li>
<li>Through a holding chain, the Pïech and Porsche families will control 25% of the votes of Porsche AG directly and 39.975% indirectly (total of 64.975%), with just a 24.275% economic interest.</li>
<li>The IPO looks set for success, with possible DAX inclusion, and pricing likely towards the top-end. This should favour Volkswagen's re-rating and tighten the discount to NAV of Porsche SE.</li>
</ul>


Volkswagen sets the price range for the Porsche AG IPO between €76.50 and €82.50. The books are covered several times. Porsche AG will begin trading on September 29.
Through a holding chain, the Pïech and Porsche families will control 25% of the votes of Porsche AG directly and 39.975% indirectly (total of 64.975%), with just a 24.275% economic interest.
The IPO looks set for success, with possible DAX inclusion, and pricing likely towards the top-end. This should favour Volkswagen's re-rating and tighten the discount to NAV of Porsche SE.


Germany

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers development, production, and sale of automobiles along with financial services. Porsche operates worldwide.

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Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: October ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October as a result of market recovery. Short-term recoveries provide...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Smartkarma Webinar | China EVs: Sales Strong, Stocks Weak?! 🤨

On 21 October 11am SGT, Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor will be joined Analysts Chris Redl and Sameer Taneja in an exciting discussion on the EV...

Smartkarma Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche AG Starts Trading

A lucky day for many: Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for EV, the Porsches & Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG plus a c.€19.05...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche AG: IPO Set for Success

Volkswagen sets the price range for the Porsche AG IPO between €76.50 and €82.50. The books are covered several times. Porsche AG will begin...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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