New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight market</li><li>Mainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growth</li><li>Port of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment</li></ul>

Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight marketMainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growthPort of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>On 22 December 2025, NZ signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India after nine months of negotiations.</li><li>Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.</li><li>The benefits to other exporters within our coverage (The a2 Milk Company [ATM], Port of Tauranga [POT], Napier Port [NPH], Skellerup [SKL], Sanford [SAN], and Synlait Milk [SML]) are relatively immaterial today (varies by company), but the FTA is still a small positive, particularly for medium to long-term growth potential.</li></ul>

On 22 December 2025, NZ signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India after nine months of negotiations.Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.The benefits to other exporters within our coverage (The a2 Milk Company [ATM], Port of Tauranga [POT], Napier Port [NPH], Skellerup [SKL], Sanford [SAN], and Synlait Milk [SML]) are relatively immaterial today (varies by company), but the FTA is still a small positive, particularly for medium to long-term growth potential.

Equity Strategy NZ–India FTA — An Early Christmas Present

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.</li><li>First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.</li><li>Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.

Napier Port FY25—Returns Destination On The Horizon

<ul><li>We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.</li><li>Underlying NPAT of NZ$126m (+23% against FY24) was above the top end of management’s guidance range, driven by pricing gains and robust cargo growth.</li><li>Strong earnings growth is likely to be sustained over the medium term as POT continues to close the gap on its 7% return on invested capital (ROIC) target—currently 5.3% on its operational assets.</li></ul>

We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.Underlying NPAT of NZ$126m (+23% against FY24) was above the top end of management’s guidance range, driven by pricing gains and robust cargo growth.Strong earnings growth is likely to be sustained over the medium term as POT continues to close the gap on its 7% return on invested capital (ROIC) target—currently 5.3% on its operational assets.

<ul><li>We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing initiatives, and cost efficiencies, particularly for rail.</li><li>Our FY25 underlying NPAT forecast of NZ$124m (+22% on the prior year) is at the top end of management's NZ$115m–NZ$125m guidance range.</li><li>Pricing gains included a doubling of its container infrastructure levy and material increases in unit bulk charges.</li></ul>

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing initiatives, and cost efficiencies, particularly for rail.Our FY25 underlying NPAT forecast of NZ$124m (+22% on the prior year) is at the top end of management's NZ$115m–NZ$125m guidance range.Pricing gains included a doubling of its container infrastructure levy and material increases in unit bulk charges.

Port Of Tauranga FY25 Preview—Pricing Opportunity

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Transport Trends: Mixed Bag

The post-pandemic world is a mixed bag for the transport sector: aviation is enjoying an expected and much needed resurgence; global airfreight...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy NZ–India FTA — An Early Christmas Present

Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port FY25—Returns Destination On The Horizon

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing...

Forsyth Barr

Port Of Tauranga - FY25—Pricing Play

We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.

Forsyth Barr

Port Of Tauranga FY25 Preview—Pricing Opportunity

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing...

Forsyth Barr

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