New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levels</li><li>Air cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacity</li><li>In this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector</li></ul>

Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levelsAir cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacityIn this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

<ul><li>Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight market</li><li>Mainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growth</li><li>Port of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment</li></ul>

Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight marketMainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growthPort of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Operational revenue rose 33% YoY to RM808mn in 2Q26; PAT up 56% to RM361mn on both tariff phases running for a full quarter.</li>
<li>Total TEUs fell 1% to 2.84mn as Middle East transshipment dropped 24%; container revenue per TEU jumped 37% to RM242.6.</li>
<li>Trades at 17.0x FY26e P/E, 11.3x EV/EBITDA and a 4.4% yield at MYR6.55; FY26 throughput guidance cut to broadly flat.</li>
</ul>


Operational revenue rose 33% YoY to RM808mn in 2Q26; PAT up 56% to RM361mn on both tariff phases running for a full quarter.
Total TEUs fell 1% to 2.84mn as Middle East transshipment dropped 24%; container revenue per TEU jumped 37% to RM242.6.
Trades at 17.0x FY26e P/E, 11.3x EV/EBITDA and a 4.4% yield at MYR6.55; FY26 throughput guidance cut to broadly flat.


Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) Q2FY26: 56% PAT Growth,70.7% EBITDA Margin, 17x PE with a 4.4% Yield

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> IE considers the Macquarie Asset Management’s scheme offer at A$5.20 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range of A$4.93-5.41.</li>
<li>The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, OIO approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, and the scheme vote is low risk.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 28 July payment, the gross/annualised spread of the A$5.1465 offer (A$5.20 less the A$0.053 interim dividend) is 2.7%/10.5%.  </li>
</ul>


The Qube Holdings (QUB AU) IE considers the Macquarie Asset Management’s scheme offer at A$5.20 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range of A$4.93-5.41.
The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, OIO approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, and the scheme vote is low risk.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 28 July payment, the gross/annualised spread of the A$5.1465 offer (A$5.20 less the A$0.053 interim dividend) is 2.7%/10.5%.  


Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Scheme Vote on 16 June

<ul><li>On 22 December 2025, NZ signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India after nine months of negotiations.</li><li>Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.</li><li>The benefits to other exporters within our coverage (The a2 Milk Company [ATM], Port of Tauranga [POT], Napier Port [NPH], Skellerup [SKL], Sanford [SAN], and Synlait Milk [SML]) are relatively immaterial today (varies by company), but the FTA is still a small positive, particularly for medium to long-term growth potential.</li></ul>

On 22 December 2025, NZ signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India after nine months of negotiations.Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.The benefits to other exporters within our coverage (The a2 Milk Company [ATM], Port of Tauranga [POT], Napier Port [NPH], Skellerup [SKL], Sanford [SAN], and Synlait Milk [SML]) are relatively immaterial today (varies by company), but the FTA is still a small positive, particularly for medium to long-term growth potential.

Equity Strategy NZ–India FTA — An Early Christmas Present

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

The industry is normalising, but from different angles and at a different rates: Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly,...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends: Mixed Bag

The post-pandemic world is a mixed bag for the transport sector: aviation is enjoying an expected and much needed resurgence; global airfreight...

Forsyth Barr

Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) Q2FY26: 56% PAT Growth,70.7% EBITDA Margin, 17x PE with a 4.4% Yield

Price, not volume, is driving Westports: 2Q26 PAT rose 56% on flat TEUs, and at 17x FY26e with a 4.4% yield the WP2 expansion optionality still...

Sameer Taneja

Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Scheme Vote on 16 June

A day after the scheme vote passed, the ACCC approved the transaction. FIRB and OIO approvals should also be forthcoming. At the last close and for...

Arun George

Equity Strategy NZ–India FTA — An Early Christmas Present

Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.

Forsyth Barr

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