New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.</li><li>Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.</li><li>NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.

<ul><li>Third-party data covering over 75% of Port of Tauranga’s (POT) cargo volume suggests POT enjoyed robust 4Q25 cargo volumes and will likely report FY25 volumes at or marginally ahead of guidance.</li><li>While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).</li><li>Moreover, we continue to see pricing as the key lever for POT to lift return on capital above current sub-WACC levels.</li></ul>

Third-party data covering over 75% of Port of Tauranga’s (POT) cargo volume suggests POT enjoyed robust 4Q25 cargo volumes and will likely report FY25 volumes at or marginally ahead of guidance.While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).Moreover, we continue to see pricing as the key lever for POT to lift return on capital above current sub-WACC levels.

<ul><li>The favourable pricing backdrop for Port of Tauranga (POT) continues, with the company set to materially increase its access pricing at MetroPort from 1 September 2025.</li><li>POT currently trades at ~19x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which appears consistent with its post-COVID history on a bond rate-adjusted basis.</li><li>Our revised NPAT forecast for FY26 implies +19% growth on FY25, driven almost entirely by pricing initiatives.</li></ul>

The favourable pricing backdrop for Port of Tauranga (POT) continues, with the company set to materially increase its access pricing at MetroPort from 1 September 2025.POT currently trades at ~19x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which appears consistent with its post-COVID history on a bond rate-adjusted basis.Our revised NPAT forecast for FY26 implies +19% growth on FY25, driven almost entirely by pricing initiatives.

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga's new tariff schedule for FY26 indicates continued pricing momentum with expected unit-container revenue to increase by ~8% in FY26.</li><li>The infrastructure levy will double, and a modest bulk truck-access charge will be introduced, supporting robust near-term earnings growth.</li><li>The firm is projected to achieve +20% NPAT growth in FY25 and +15% in FY26, with ROIC expected to exceed WACC by FY28.</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga's new tariff schedule for FY26 indicates continued pricing momentum with expected unit-container revenue to increase by ~8% in FY26.The infrastructure levy will double, and a modest bulk truck-access charge will be introduced, supporting robust near-term earnings growth.The firm is projected to achieve +20% NPAT growth in FY25 and +15% in FY26, with ROIC expected to exceed WACC by FY28.

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong first half result with a 27% increase in underlying NPAT to NZ$60.2m, exceeding expectations.</li><li>FY25 NPAT guidance has been upgraded to NZ$115m-NZ$125m, indicating potential for a modest lift in market expectations.</li><li>Trade volumes improved by 6.9%, with container volumes up 10.2% despite declines at MetroPort, and robust gains in non-log bulk volumes.</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong first half result with a 27% increase in underlying NPAT to NZ$60.2m, exceeding expectations.FY25 NPAT guidance has been upgraded to NZ$115m-NZ$125m, indicating potential for a modest lift in market expectations.Trade volumes improved by 6.9%, with container volumes up 10.2% despite declines at MetroPort, and robust gains in non-log bulk volumes.

Port of Tauranga (POT.NZ) - 1H25 Result Initial Thoughts

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Napier Port Running a Tight Ship

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating...

Forsyth Barr

Port Of Tauranga - Appetising FIGS

While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga The Price Is Right

he favourable pricing backdrop for Port of Tauranga (POT) continues, with the company set to materially increase its access pricing at MetroPort...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga - Port Pricing in Vogue

Port of Tauranga's new tariff schedule for FY26 indicates continued pricing momentum with expected unit-container revenue to increase by ~8% in FY26.

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga (POT.NZ) - 1H25 Result Initial Thoughts

Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong first half result with a 27% increase in underlying NPAT to NZ$60.2m, exceeding expectations. FY25 NPAT...

Forsyth Barr

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