Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After peaking in 2021, POSCO’s performance has steadily weakened, with revenue and margins declining due to softer steel prices and macro headwinds.</li>
<li>The group is gradually pivoting toward battery materials and EV supply chains via POSCO Future M, backed by large investments in lithium, cathodes, and green hydrogen.</li>
<li>Despite near-term profitability pressure, the stock trades at just 0.5× book and ~4.7× EV/EBITDA, offering compelling value if its transition strategy plays out.</li>
</ul>


After peaking in 2021, POSCO’s performance has steadily weakened, with revenue and margins declining due to softer steel prices and macro headwinds.
The group is gradually pivoting toward battery materials and EV supply chains via POSCO Future M, backed by large investments in lithium, cathodes, and green hydrogen.
Despite near-term profitability pressure, the stock trades at just 0.5× book and ~4.7× EV/EBITDA, offering compelling value if its transition strategy plays out.


POSCO Holdings (KRX: 005490.KQ | NYSE: PKX): Steel Giant in Transition with Deep-Value Appeal

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (4 to 18 July 2025).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-electric-power-corporation-kepco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16:1" rel="noopener">Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) (015760 KS)</a> was the best performing stock among the top 100 stocks in KOSPI in the past two weeks. </li>
<li>The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include LG Uplus, KCC, SK Hynix, Naver, Korea Kolmar, Korea Investment Holdings, Misto Holdings, Lotte Tour Development, LG Chem, and SK Inc.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (4 to 18 July 2025).

Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) (015760 KS) was the best performing stock among the top 100 stocks in KOSPI in the past two weeks. 
The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include LG Uplus, KCC, SK Hynix, Naver, Korea Kolmar, Korea Investment Holdings, Misto Holdings, Lotte Tour Development, LG Chem, and SK Inc.


Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (4 to 18 July 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June.</li>
<li>There will be capping inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> and funding outflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>A long adds/ short deletes trade has performed well historically for the FnGuide Top 10 Index with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June.
There will be capping inflows for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), capping outflows for SK Hynix (000660 KS) and funding outflows for the other index constituents.
A long adds/ short deletes trade has performed well historically for the FnGuide Top 10 Index with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.


FnGuide Top 10 & Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.</li>
<li>Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.</li>
<li>Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.</li>
</ul>


The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.
Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.
Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.


Unpacking Posco Future M's Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

<ul>
<li>Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. </li>
<li>The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price. </li>
<li>We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.</li>
</ul>


Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. 
The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price. 
We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.


POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

South Korea

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

POSCO Holdings (KRX: 005490.KQ | NYSE: PKX): Steel Giant in Transition with Deep-Value Appeal

POSCO's shift towards battery materials and EV supply chains is driving investments despite recent revenue and margin declines, presenting...

Rahul Jain

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (4 to 18 July 2025)

The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include LG Uplus, KCC, SK Hynix, Naver, Korea Kolmar, Korea Investment Holdings, Misto Holdings, Lotte Tour...

Douglas Kim

FnGuide Top 10 & Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues

There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

Unpacking Posco Future M's Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

This post provides a detailed analysis of Posco Future M's rights offering, disclosed after market close today, examining the key terms, structure,...

Sanghyun Park

POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. We have a Negative view...

Douglas Kim

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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POSCO Holdings (KRX: 005490.KQ | NYSE: PKX): Steel Giant in Transition with Deep-Value Appeal

​POSCO's shift towards battery materials and EV supply chains is driving investments despite recent revenue and margin declines, presenting...

Rahul Jain

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (4 to 18 July 2025)

The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include LG Uplus, KCC, SK Hynix, Naver, Korea Kolmar, Korea Investment Holdings, Misto Holdings, Lotte Tour...

Douglas Kim

FnGuide Top 10 & Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues

There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

Unpacking Posco Future M's Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

This post provides a detailed analysis of Posco Future M's rights offering, disclosed after market close today, examining the key terms, structure,...

Sanghyun Park

POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. We have a Negative view...

Douglas Kim

POSCO's shift towards battery materials and EV supply chains is driving investments despite recent revenue and margin declines, presenting...