Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world. </li>
<li>We expect two changes during the March 2026 regular rebalance. One intra-review index change is possible but unlikely before the regular rebalance is announced.</li>
<li>One name stands out as more interesting than the others.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world. 
We expect two changes during the March 2026 regular rebalance. One intra-review index change is possible but unlikely before the regular rebalance is announced.
One name stands out as more interesting than the others.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Mar26 Rebal: Base Date Is Less Than A Month Away

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Jefferson Capital / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Jefferson Capital priced a full-size deal of 10.0mm shares at $15.00 (low-end of the range) and opened at $19.00 for a gain of 26.7% at open. </li>
<li>The IPO was marketed at just 5x 2026 earnings projections, which is extraordinarily cheap to current public competitors.</li>
<li>We feel that the "interest" in this IPO may tail off and the stock's price will be performance driven based upon subsequent earnings reports.</li>
</ul>


Jefferson Capital priced a full-size deal of 10.0mm shares at $15.00 (low-end of the range) and opened at $19.00 for a gain of 26.7% at open. 
The IPO was marketed at just 5x 2026 earnings projections, which is extraordinarily cheap to current public competitors.
We feel that the "interest" in this IPO may tail off and the stock's price will be performance driven based upon subsequent earnings reports.


Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Value Investors Bid Up Insolvency Account Manager IPO

<ul>
<li>For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they had net income of $64.2 million, compared to $32.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.</li>
<li>The company is coming at an attractive valuation but our sources say traditional IPO investors "may" be staying on the sidelines for this deal. </li>
<li>This company is private equity backed by J.C. Flowers &amp; Co and they will own 68.9% of the voting power following this IPO.</li>
</ul>


For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they had net income of $64.2 million, compared to $32.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.
The company is coming at an attractive valuation but our sources say traditional IPO investors "may" be staying on the sidelines for this deal. 
This company is private equity backed by J.C. Flowers &amp; Co and they will own 68.9% of the voting power following this IPO.


Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP):Valuation Attractive, Sector-Dedicated Investors to Dominate the Book

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. </li>
<li>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti .</li>
</ul>


Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. 
Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.
Today we are flagging PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti .


Declining Business Short Candidates: PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti

United States

PRA Group Inc provides outsourced receivables management. The Company purchases, collects and manages portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Pra Group Inc (PRAA US)

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Mar26 Rebal: Base Date Is Less Than A Month Away

The base date is approaching next week and this is a good time to revisit the insight. Lamb Weston has replaced Molina Healthcare in our top...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Value Investors Bid Up Insolvency Account Manager IPO

Jefferson Capital's IPO priced low but opened strong, with potential for performance-driven price movement based on future earnings reports.

IPO Boutique

Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP):Valuation Attractive, Sector-Dedicated Investors to Dominate the Book

Private equity backed company reports strong net income of $64.2 million for Q1 2025, but traditional IPO investors may be cautious.

IPO Boutique

Declining Business Short Candidates: PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti

Declining business shorts pursue profit by following negative business momentum. Today we are flagging PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Mar26 Rebal: Base Date Is Less Than A Month Away

The base date is approaching next week and this is a good time to revisit the insight. Lamb Weston has replaced Molina Healthcare in our top...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Value Investors Bid Up Insolvency Account Manager IPO

​Jefferson Capital's IPO priced low but opened strong, with potential for performance-driven price movement based on future earnings reports.

IPO Boutique

Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP):Valuation Attractive, Sector-Dedicated Investors to Dominate the Book

​Private equity backed company reports strong net income of $64.2 million for Q1 2025, but traditional IPO investors may be cautious.

IPO Boutique

Declining Business Short Candidates: PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti

Declining business shorts pursue profit by following negative business momentum. Today we are flagging PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Jefferson Capital's IPO priced low but opened strong, with potential for performance-driven price movement based on future earnings reports.

Private equity backed company reports strong net income of $64.2 million for Q1 2025, but traditional IPO investors may be cautious.