Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.</li>
<li>Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> is the biggest sell.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.
Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. HSBC Holdings (5 HK) is the biggest sell.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.</li>
<li>Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.</li>
<li>The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.</li>
</ul>


While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.
Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.
The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.


APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and "get involved directly" in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future</li>
<li>Although there're "reusable aspects" in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from "scale effect".So, low profit margin is the norm.</li>
<li>Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty's net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and "get involved directly" in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future
Although there're "reusable aspects" in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from "scale effect".So, low profit margin is the norm.
Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty's net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Reprieve on the tariff front gives investors the opportunity to sell/short.</li>
<li>Despite market action, a global slowdown and a US recession are still on the cards.</li>
<li>We look at some stocks that will not perform well in this environment.</li>
</ul>


Reprieve on the tariff front gives investors the opportunity to sell/short.
Despite market action, a global slowdown and a US recession are still on the cards.
We look at some stocks that will not perform well in this environment.


Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Capri Holdings’ sale of Versace to Prada removes a structurally weak asset, shifting its balance sheet from net debt to net cash, simplifying its brand portfolio for sharper strategic focus.</li>
<li>Post-Transaction, Capri trades at just 4.4x EBITDA despite becoming a leaner, debt-free luxury group with two globally recognized brands — a setup primed for significant multiple expansion and investor re-rating.</li>
<li>A sum-of-the-parts valuation excluding Versace suggests Capri’s fair value is $30–33 per share, offering investors over 100% upside as the company pivots from portfolio fixer-upper to focused luxury contender.</li>
</ul>


Capri Holdings’ sale of Versace to Prada removes a structurally weak asset, shifting its balance sheet from net debt to net cash, simplifying its brand portfolio for sharper strategic focus.
Post-Transaction, Capri trades at just 4.4x EBITDA despite becoming a leaner, debt-free luxury group with two globally recognized brands — a setup primed for significant multiple expansion and investor re-rating.
A sum-of-the-parts valuation excluding Versace suggests Capri’s fair value is $30–33 per share, offering investors over 100% upside as the company pivots from portfolio fixer-upper to focused luxury contender.


Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI

Italy

Prada S.p.A. is an Italian fashion company that designs, manufactures, promotes and sells high-end leather goods, ready-to-wear and footwear through various brands.

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Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

No changes for the HSI in March. There are free float and capping changes though. HSBC is a passive sell due to capping, ICBC and Trip.com are buys...

Brian Freitas

APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...

Rikki Malik

Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI

Capri Holdings' sale of Versace to Prada boosts financial health and strategic focus, setting the stage for significant growth potential and over...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

No changes for the HSI in March. There are free float and capping changes though. HSBC is a passive sell due to capping, ICBC and Trip.com are buys...

Brian Freitas

APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

​Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

​Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...

Rikki Malik

Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI

​Capri Holdings' sale of Versace to Prada boosts financial health and strategic focus, setting the stage for significant growth potential and over...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...

Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...

Capri Holdings' sale of Versace to Prada boosts financial health and strategic focus, setting the stage for significant growth potential and over...