Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.</li>
<li>Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.</li>
<li>The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.</li>
</ul>


While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.
Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.
The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.


APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Eternal Beauty Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and "get involved directly" in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future</li>
<li>Although there're "reusable aspects" in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from "scale effect".So, low profit margin is the norm.</li>
<li>Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty's net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and "get involved directly" in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future
Although there're "reusable aspects" in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from "scale effect".So, low profit margin is the norm.
Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty's net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Reprieve on the tariff front gives investors the opportunity to sell/short.</li>
<li>Despite market action, a global slowdown and a US recession are still on the cards.</li>
<li>We look at some stocks that will not perform well in this environment.</li>
</ul>


Reprieve on the tariff front gives investors the opportunity to sell/short.
Despite market action, a global slowdown and a US recession are still on the cards.
We look at some stocks that will not perform well in this environment.


Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Capri Holdings’ sale of Versace to Prada removes a structurally weak asset, shifting its balance sheet from net debt to net cash, simplifying its brand portfolio for sharper strategic focus.</li>
<li>Post-Transaction, Capri trades at just 4.4x EBITDA despite becoming a leaner, debt-free luxury group with two globally recognized brands — a setup primed for significant multiple expansion and investor re-rating.</li>
<li>A sum-of-the-parts valuation excluding Versace suggests Capri’s fair value is $30–33 per share, offering investors over 100% upside as the company pivots from portfolio fixer-upper to focused luxury contender.</li>
</ul>


Capri Holdings’ sale of Versace to Prada removes a structurally weak asset, shifting its balance sheet from net debt to net cash, simplifying its brand portfolio for sharper strategic focus.
Post-Transaction, Capri trades at just 4.4x EBITDA despite becoming a leaner, debt-free luxury group with two globally recognized brands — a setup primed for significant multiple expansion and investor re-rating.
A sum-of-the-parts valuation excluding Versace suggests Capri’s fair value is $30–33 per share, offering investors over 100% upside as the company pivots from portfolio fixer-upper to focused luxury contender.


Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.</li>
<li>This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.</li>
<li>Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.</li>
</ul>


Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.
Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.


Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2:  Trading Opportunities.

Italy

Prada S.p.A. is an Italian fashion company that designs, manufactures, promotes and sells high-end leather goods, ready-to-wear and footwear through various brands.

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Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)

APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...

Rikki Malik

Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI

Capri Holdings' sale of Versace to Prada boosts financial health and strategic focus, setting the stage for significant growth potential and over...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) - The Outlook Has Changed

​Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

​Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...

Rikki Malik

Capri Unstitched: A Versace Sale Could Unlock Value for CPRI

​Capri Holdings' sale of Versace to Prada boosts financial health and strategic focus, setting the stage for significant growth potential and over...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

​US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Luxury groups' direct involvement in beauty/fragrance management is the trend, leading to the loss of suppliers of Eternal Beauty.Low profit...

Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...

Capri Holdings' sale of Versace to Prada boosts financial health and strategic focus, setting the stage for significant growth potential and over...

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...