New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.</li><li>We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.</li><li>The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.</li></ul>

Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.

Equity Bottom-Up

Precinct Properties New Zealand / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.</li><li>Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.</li><li>We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.</li></ul>

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.Over the month, we downgraded Precinct and Winton from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, with the former trading on a full but fair +8% premium to NTA, and the latter due to the residential downcycle.We also upgraded SPG from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM on valuation grounds, given its discount to NTA, our conservative NAV, and its solid 9.3% gross yield.

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

<ul><li>The NZ listed property sector has outperformed the broader NZ market, delivering a +6% outperformance versus a -4% decline in the broader market.</li><li>With asset values stabilizing and forward capital requirements modest, the use of dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) is now less necessary, making share buybacks an attractive option.</li><li>The high yields in the property sector appear sustainable due to robust tenant demand, fixed rental increases, and reduced debt costs.</li></ul>

The NZ listed property sector has outperformed the broader NZ market, delivering a +6% outperformance versus a -4% decline in the broader market.With asset values stabilizing and forward capital requirements modest, the use of dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) is now less necessary, making share buybacks an attractive option.The high yields in the property sector appear sustainable due to robust tenant demand, fixed rental increases, and reduced debt costs.

Real Estate Reflections Ahead at Halftime

<ul><li>After a soft few months, the listed-property sector had a strong May and is now flat year-to-date 2025, with reporting season generally positive despite increased vacancies in some areas.</li><li>Investment Boost policy is net positive for the property sector, offering tax deductions for newly completed structures, improving IRRs, and benefiting sector earnings.</li><li>Six property companies reported FY25 results with a stable outlook; however, the sector remains capital-constrained with gearing at or above target levels.</li></ul>

After a soft few months, the listed-property sector had a strong May and is now flat year-to-date 2025, with reporting season generally positive despite increased vacancies in some areas.Investment Boost policy is net positive for the property sector, offering tax deductions for newly completed structures, improving IRRs, and benefiting sector earnings.Six property companies reported FY25 results with a stable outlook; however, the sector remains capital-constrained with gearing at or above target levels.

<ul><li>Upcoming results should highlight robust portfolio occupancy, continued rent growth, declining debt costs, and improved distributions in FY26.</li><li>The NZ listed property sector continued its relative outperformance, with high yields deemed sustainable and valuations at attractive levels.</li><li>Solid net rental income growth is expected, but higher leasing incentives and maintenance capex may weigh on earnings.</li></ul>

Upcoming results should highlight robust portfolio occupancy, continued rent growth, declining debt costs, and improved distributions in FY26.The NZ listed property sector continued its relative outperformance, with high yields deemed sustainable and valuations at attractive levels.Solid net rental income growth is expected, but higher leasing incentives and maintenance capex may weigh on earnings.

Real Estate Reflections - Attractive Valuations

New Zealand

Precinct Properties New Zealand Ltd. invests in manages and leases commercial office properties. The Company invests in properties in Auckland and Wellington.

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Precinct Properties New Zealand (PCT NZ)

Real Estate Reflections Hot Property

We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Closing The Discount

The NZ-listed property sector continued its run in August, having now outperformed the broader NZ market by +12% year to date.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Ahead at Halftime

The NZ listed property sector has outperformed the broader NZ market, delivering a +6% outperformance versus a -4% decline in the broader market.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections On the Up

After a soft few months, the listed-property sector had a strong May and is now flat year-to-date 2025, with reporting season generally positive...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Attractive Valuations

Upcoming results should highlight robust portfolio occupancy, continued rent growth, declining debt costs, and improved distributions in FY26.

Forsyth Barr

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