Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is no suggestion of precondition breach attached to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>'s impairment losses. </li>
<li>Seven Group, now holding 71.6%, has returned to the well, and made a cash/scrip Offer for shares not owned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral (BLD AU)</a>, with certain tendering thresholds triggering more cash.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itoki-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18032:1" rel="noopener">Itoki Corp (7972 JP)</a>'s mega ToSTNeT-3 buyback is now done.</li>
</ul>


There is no suggestion of precondition breach attached to Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)'s impairment losses. 
Seven Group, now holding 71.6%, has returned to the well, and made a cash/scrip Offer for shares not owned in Boral (BLD AU), with certain tendering thresholds triggering more cash.

Itoki Corp (7972 JP)'s mega ToSTNeT-3 buyback is now done.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The CNMV authorizes the partial takeover bid of Gubel S.L., for 15% of the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosegur-cia-de-seguridad-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21290:1" rel="noopener">Prosegur (PSG SM)</a> at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, although extension possible to 13 May.</li>
<li>I recommend long and tender, both because of the current spread and the fact that its already low liquidity and low free float will be even lower after closing.</li>
<li>I believe the proration risk is minimal. Spread is 2.95%/12.43% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 23 May).</li>
</ul>


The CNMV authorizes the partial takeover bid of Gubel S.L., for 15% of the shares of Prosegur (PSG SM) at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, although extension possible to 13 May.
I recommend long and tender, both because of the current spread and the fact that its already low liquidity and low free float will be even lower after closing.
I believe the proration risk is minimal. Spread is 2.95%/12.43% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 23 May).


Gubel/​Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a> is massively net cash. And it's ofloading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>. Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona is the wrong price.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> controlling shreholder announced it intends to increase it stake. And it's been in the market almost everry day since the interims. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK)</a> announced its rights offering. It's at a long-term low price, and about to earn a long-term high net income, and have a long-term high payout ratio</li>
</ul>



Pasona Group (2168 JP) is massively net cash. And it's ofloading Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona is the wrong price.

ENN Energy (2688 HK) controlling shreholder announced it intends to increase it stake. And it's been in the market almost everry day since the interims. 

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) announced its rights offering. It's at a long-term low price, and about to earn a long-term high net income, and have a long-term high payout ratio


Last Week in Event SPACE: Zhejiang, Pasona, ENN Energy, Asahi Group, Azure Minerals

<ul>
<li>Top shareholder Gubel (59.9% stake) launches a cash partial takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosegur-cia-de-seguridad-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21290:1" rel="noopener">Prosegur Cia De Seguridad Sa (PSG SM)</a> at €1.83/share, cum dividend, except for €0.0661/share dividend payable on 1 December.</li>
<li>Premium 27.4%, 4.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 7.5x Fwd P/E. The founders profit from an underperforming share price to increase their stake, and this could comfortably be financed with the dividends.</li>
<li>Gross spread, including December dividend, is c. 7%, which is quite good even considering risk of apportionment, although patience may be needed to accumulate a large position.</li>
</ul>


Top shareholder Gubel (59.9% stake) launches a cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur Cia De Seguridad Sa (PSG SM) at €1.83/share, cum dividend, except for €0.0661/share dividend payable on 1 December.
Premium 27.4%, 4.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 7.5x Fwd P/E. The founders profit from an underperforming share price to increase their stake, and this could comfortably be financed with the dividends.
Gross spread, including December dividend, is c. 7%, which is quite good even considering risk of apportionment, although patience may be needed to accumulate a large position.


Gubel/Prosegur: Partial Takeover Offer at Interesting Spread

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Securities and Intelligence Services (SIS) plans to raise US$120m through a mix of primary and secondary share issuance. The company provides security, cash management and facilities management services across India and Australia.SIS is one of the largest players in each of the segments that it operates in. In India, most of the segments are expected to grow at 15-20% CAGR, which should aid the company's growth.However, SIS's growth across segments has been inconsistent and margins have been volatile. Moreover, Australia contributes more than half of the revenue and an even higher proportion of profits and will not grow anywhere close to 15-20%. Nonetheless, the company seems to be marketing itself as an India growth play and asking for a high multiple.

Securities and Intelligence Services (SIS) plans to raise US$120m through a mix of primary and secondary share issuance. The company provides security, cash management and facilities management services across India and Australia.SIS is one of the largest players in each of the segments that it operates in. In India, most of the segments are expected to grow at 15-20% CAGR, which should aid the company's growth.However, SIS's growth across segments has been inconsistent and margins have been volatile. Moreover, Australia contributes more than half of the revenue and an even higher proportion of profits and will not grow anywhere close to 15-20%. Nonetheless, the company seems to be marketing itself as an India growth play and asking for a high multiple.

Securities and Intelligence IPO - If Only the Numbers Wouldn't Get in the Way of a Good Story

Spain

Prosegur, Compania de Seguridad SA offers security and transportation services. The Company offers surveillance, electronic security, and burglar alarms.  It also transports funds, periodicals and corporate mail, and stores, handles, and distributes special materials.  Prosegur operates in Europe and the Americas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Prosegur (PSG SM)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Gubel/Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

CNMV authorizes Gubel S.L. to make partial takeover bid for 15% of Prosegur shares at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Zhejiang, Pasona, ENN Energy, Asahi Group, Azure Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Gubel/Prosegur: Partial Takeover Offer at Interesting Spread

Top shareholder Gubel launches cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur at €1.83/share, founders profit from underperforming share price to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Securities and Intelligence IPO - If Only the Numbers Wouldn't Get in the Way of a Good Story

Securities and Intelligence Services (SIS) plans to raise US$120m through a mix of primary and secondary share issuance. The company provides...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Gubel/​Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

​CNMV authorizes Gubel S.L. to make partial takeover bid for 15% of Prosegur shares at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Zhejiang, Pasona, ENN Energy, Asahi Group, Azure Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Gubel/Prosegur: Partial Takeover Offer at Interesting Spread

​Top shareholder Gubel launches cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur at €1.83/share, founders profit from underperforming share price to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Securities and Intelligence IPO - If Only the Numbers Wouldn't Get in the Way of a Good Story

Securities and Intelligence Services (SIS) plans to raise US$120m through a mix of primary and secondary share issuance. The company provides...

Sumeet Singh

Gubel/Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

CNMV authorizes Gubel S.L. to make partial takeover bid for 15% of Prosegur shares at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, with...

Top shareholder Gubel launches cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur at €1.83/share, founders profit from underperforming share price to...