European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PPF exits the stage: With 15.7% of ProSieben shares tendered into MFE’s bid, PPF has abandoned its rival ambitions, leaving MFE unopposed and on track for outright majority control.</li>
<li>Arbitrage window closed: ProSieben now trades precisely in line with MFE’s implied offer value. The spread is exhausted, signalling that the classic risk arb trade has already played out.</li>
<li>Integration is the next test: With majority assured, the spotlight shifts from bid dynamics to synergy execution.</li>
</ul>


PPF exits the stage: With 15.7% of ProSieben shares tendered into MFE’s bid, PPF has abandoned its rival ambitions, leaving MFE unopposed and on track for outright majority control.
Arbitrage window closed: ProSieben now trades precisely in line with MFE’s implied offer value. The spread is exhausted, signalling that the classic risk arb trade has already played out.
Integration is the next test: With majority assured, the spotlight shifts from bid dynamics to synergy execution.


ProSiebenSat 1: PPF Concedes, MFE Majority Secured

<ul>
<li>MFE secured 43.6% of ProSieben; board supports its offer. PPF stalled at 18.4% with expired bid. The arbitrage spread compressed, leaving minimal upside but structural consolidation remains pivotal.</li>
<li>Short-Term arbitrage returns are capped (+0.4% base case), while downside risk persists if blocking dynamics resurface. The medium-term value case depends on synergy delivery, with 18–35% EPS accretion possible.</li>
<li>Key milestones: September 1 end of extended acceptance, September 4 final results. Thereafter, MFE may pursue creeping acquisitions under Germany’s best-price rule, progressively consolidating control and enabling strategic integration.</li>
</ul>


MFE secured 43.6% of ProSieben; board supports its offer. PPF stalled at 18.4% with expired bid. The arbitrage spread compressed, leaving minimal upside but structural consolidation remains pivotal.
Short-Term arbitrage returns are capped (+0.4% base case), while downside risk persists if blocking dynamics resurface. The medium-term value case depends on synergy delivery, with 18–35% EPS accretion possible.
Key milestones: September 1 end of extended acceptance, September 4 final results. Thereafter, MFE may pursue creeping acquisitions under Germany’s best-price rule, progressively consolidating control and enabling strategic integration.


MFE-ProSieben: Spread Closed, Control Still in Play

<ul>
<li>MFE raised its offer to €7.88 implied, tightening the spread to just +1.15%; new long entries now face skewed downside risk without a second bump or strategic surprise.</li>
<li>Legacy holders from €5.80–7.00 have captured meaningful gains; with the August 13 deadline approaching, using MFE-A hedges or call structures preserves upside while limiting exposure.</li>
<li>MFE-A borrow remains accessible (~0.75%), making short hedges viable; paired with call options, this offers capital-efficient exposure to upside while mitigating equity volatility in a tight spread setup.</li>
</ul>


MFE raised its offer to €7.88 implied, tightening the spread to just +1.15%; new long entries now face skewed downside risk without a second bump or strategic surprise.
Legacy holders from €5.80–7.00 have captured meaningful gains; with the August 13 deadline approaching, using MFE-A hedges or call structures preserves upside while limiting exposure.
MFE-A borrow remains accessible (~0.75%), making short hedges viable; paired with call options, this offers capital-efficient exposure to upside while mitigating equity volatility in a tight spread setup.


ProSiebenSat.1: MFE Raises Offer, Reducing Arbitrage Upside and Shifting Risk Profile

<ul>
<li>Offer Period: Both PPF and MFE offers expire August 13, 2025, allowing shareholders to weigh competing bids. The synchronized deadline heightens pressure on MFE to respond or risk losing influence.</li>
<li>Options Strategy: Buying the €7.10 call offers low-cost exposure to a potential bump. With breakeven at €7.26 and decent delta, it's a tactical way to play a revised MFE bid.</li>
<li>Spread Trade: A €7.10/€7.40 call spread caps risk at €0.10 and offers 3:1 reward potential. Attractive for investors expecting moderate upside without committing full premium or needing full stock exposure.</li>
</ul>


Offer Period: Both PPF and MFE offers expire August 13, 2025, allowing shareholders to weigh competing bids. The synchronized deadline heightens pressure on MFE to respond or risk losing influence.
Options Strategy: Buying the €7.10 call offers low-cost exposure to a potential bump. With breakeven at €7.26 and decent delta, it's a tactical way to play a revised MFE bid.
Spread Trade: A €7.10/€7.40 call spread caps risk at €0.10 and offers 3:1 reward potential. Attractive for investors expecting moderate upside without committing full premium or needing full stock exposure.


Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside

<ul>
<li>PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.</li>
<li>MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.</li>
<li>Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.</li>
</ul>


PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.
MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.
Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.


Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

Germany

ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE provides FTA and pay TV broadcasting services in Germany, Austria, and the German-speaking part of Switzerland. The Group operates digital entertainment activities such as advertising and subscription based VOD streaming services, a global multi-channel network, and online games. It also invests in digital commerce companies and produces TV programming.

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ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM GR)

ProSiebenSat 1: PPF Concedes, MFE Majority Secured

PPF’s exit clears the way for MFE’s majority control of ProSieben. With the spread gone, the story pivots to integration and synergy capture,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE-ProSieben: Spread Closed, Control Still in Play

MFE leads ProSieben takeover with 43.6% stake; spread closed, upside minimal. Real value now hinges on integration and €150m synergies, offering...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ProSiebenSat.1: MFE Raises Offer, Reducing Arbitrage Upside and Shifting Risk Profile

MFE’s raised bid lifts offer value to €7.88, but the spread is now tight. Old longs are in the money; new entries face downside risk unless a new...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside

PPF sets a €7.00 floor in ProSieben; market eyes MFE’s response. Optionality via calls or call spreads offers cheap upside exposure ahead of the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

PPF launches a superior partial offer for ProSieben, challenging MFE's control bid. A pivotal contest in European media with clear risk-arb angles,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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