European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Prosus's €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.</li>
<li>Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.</li>
<li>Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.</li>
</ul>


Prosus's €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.
Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.
Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.


Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst, ORTEX

Harry Kalfas

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/just-eat-takeaway-com-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28360:1" rel="noopener">Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA)</a> in an all-cash tender offer of €20.30 per share, valuing the deal at approximately €4.1 billion.</li>
<li>The transaction is awaiting Phase 1 regulatory approval from the European Commission, anticipated by late July 2025.</li>
<li>Upon completion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/just-eat-takeaway-com-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28360:1" rel="noopener">Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA)</a> will be removed from multiple major indices, potentially causing significant passive fund outflows.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is acquiring Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA) in an all-cash tender offer of €20.30 per share, valuing the deal at approximately €4.1 billion.
The transaction is awaiting Phase 1 regulatory approval from the European Commission, anticipated by late July 2025.
Upon completion, Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY NA) will be removed from multiple major indices, potentially causing significant passive fund outflows.


Prosus and Just Eat Takeaway Deal Close to Completion: Deletions Across Major Indices

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is elevated vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as the accretion trade unfolds.</li>
<li>As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, as opposed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.</li>
<li>Expect near-term weakness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is elevated vs. Tencent (700 HK) as the accretion trade unfolds.
As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), as opposed to Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.
Expect near-term weakness in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, the previous week was another busy week for listings, with mixed results.</li>
<li>On the placements front, we looked at the possible placements for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN).</a>
</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, the previous week was another busy week for listings, with mixed results.
On the placements front, we looked at the possible placements for Meituan (3690 HK) and State Bank Of India (SBIN IN).



ECM Weekly (14 July 2025) - Meituan, SBI, Kokusai, NTT, Daehan, Anthem, SICC, CIG, FWD

<ul>
<li>The benefits of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a> China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. </li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continue its Brazil market launch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.</li>
<li>Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. 
Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

China

Prosus N.V. provides internet based services. The Company focuses on investments in internet, digital media, e-commerce retailing, and consumer internet companies. Prosus serves customers worldwide.

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Prosus NV (PRX NA)

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

Prosus’s JET offer nears regulatory decision with a tight 1.1% spread. High probability of success offers 5.5% annualized return; downside risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Prosus and Just Eat Takeaway Deal Close to Completion: Deletions Across Major Indices

Prosus nears completion of its €4.1B cash offer for Just Eat Takeaway, triggering index deletions and passive flows along with intra-quarter index...

Harry Kalfas

Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

ECM Weekly (14 July 2025) - Meituan, SBI, Kokusai, NTT, Daehan, Anthem, SICC, CIG, FWD

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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