Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)5M26 SSSG &amp; Meeting TakeawaysAZKO’s 5M26 SSSG eased to 2.1% amid weaker mall traffic, but revenue growth remained on track at +6.1% yoy.</li><li>Management indicated Jun 26 sales momentum remains broadly in line with May 26 so far, although it continues to expect positive ytd growth.</li><li>Maintain Buy with unchanged TP of Rp450. Softer SSSG in 5M26 but revenue remained in line. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)5M26 SSSG &amp; Meeting TakeawaysAZKO’s 5M26 SSSG eased to 2.1% amid weaker mall traffic, but revenue growth remained on track at +6.1% yoy.Management indicated Jun 26 sales momentum remains broadly in line with May 26 so far, although it continues to expect positive ytd growth.Maintain Buy with unchanged TP of Rp450. Softer SSSG in 5M26 but revenue remained in line. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES.IJ) 5M26 SSSG & Meeting Takeaways

<ul><li>Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)5M26 SSSG &amp; Meeting TakeawaysAZKO’s 5M26 SSSG eased to 2.1% amid weaker mall traffic, but revenue growth remained on track at +6.1% yoy.</li><li>Management indicated Jun 26 sales momentum remains broadly in line with May 26 so far, although it continues to expect positive ytd growth.</li><li>Maintain Buy with unchanged TP of Rp450.Softer SSSG in 5M26 but revenue remained in line. AZKO’s 5M26 SSSG came in slightly lower at 2.1% (vs. 2.4% in 4M26)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)5M26 SSSG &amp; Meeting TakeawaysAZKO’s 5M26 SSSG eased to 2.1% amid weaker mall traffic, but revenue growth remained on track at +6.1% yoy.Management indicated Jun 26 sales momentum remains broadly in line with May 26 so far, although it continues to expect positive ytd growth.Maintain Buy with unchanged TP of Rp450.Softer SSSG in 5M26 but revenue remained in line. AZKO’s 5M26 SSSG came in slightly lower at 2.1% (vs. 2.4% in 4M26)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES.IJ Rp) 5M26 SSSG & Meeting Takeaways

<ul><li>Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)Elevated input, freight &amp; operating costs triggers earnings downgrade.</li><li>AZKO’s 1Q26 sales showed some recovery (+10.1/2.1% yoy/ qoq), though Apr26 run rate soften expectedly due to Eid timing shifts.</li><li>Mgmt implemented selective ASP hike across mass products to offset rising costs and support margin stability starting on Apr26.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)Elevated input, freight &amp; operating costs triggers earnings downgrade.AZKO’s 1Q26 sales showed some recovery (+10.1/2.1% yoy/ qoq), though Apr26 run rate soften expectedly due to Eid timing shifts.Mgmt implemented selective ASP hike across mass products to offset rising costs and support margin stability starting on Apr26.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ACES.IJ -  Elevated Input, Freight & Operating Costs Triggers Earnings Downgrade

<ul><li>Although we expect revenue to improve in 4Q25, the management expects FY25F revenue growth and SSSG to remain modest.</li><li>We lowered our FY25F est. following 9M25 results but expect FY26 earnings recovery of +15.5% supported by cost optimization and a low-base effect.</li><li>We upgrade our rating to Buy with a higher TP of Rp550, as the stock trades at a 3-year low 8.8x PE FY26F.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Although we expect revenue to improve in 4Q25, the management expects FY25F revenue growth and SSSG to remain modest.We lowered our FY25F est. following 9M25 results but expect FY26 earnings recovery of +15.5% supported by cost optimization and a low-base effect.We upgrade our rating to Buy with a higher TP of Rp550, as the stock trades at a 3-year low 8.8x PE FY26F.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES.IJ Rp422) Setting a Low Base for FY26F Upside...

Indonesia

PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk is a multi-brand retail company in Indonesia that provides home improvement products, lifestyle products, and toys through a network of retail outlets and online platforms. The company manages retail brands such as AZKO, Pendopo, ATARU, and NEKA, and operates an integrated omnichannel platform under ruparupa. It was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas