External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate 4Q25/FY25 sector revenue growth of +6.5/+6.5% yoy, relatively in line with our and consensus estimates.</li><li>Given the manageable opex, we expect sector op profit to increase by +6.6% yoy in 4Q25 with estimated core profit growth of +4.1% yoy.</li><li>Maintain Overweight on the sector; top picks are MIDI (Buy, TP Rp550) and MAPA (Buy, TP Rp800).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate 4Q25/FY25 sector revenue growth of +6.5/+6.5% yoy, relatively in line with our and consensus estimates.Given the manageable opex, we expect sector op profit to increase by +6.6% yoy in 4Q25 with estimated core profit growth of +4.1% yoy.Maintain Overweight on the sector; top picks are MIDI (Buy, TP Rp550) and MAPA (Buy, TP Rp800).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Retail: 4Q25 Preview: Expansion-Led Growth, SSSG Gradually Recovering (OVERWEIGHT)

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.
</li>
<li>Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.</li>
<li>
Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.</li>
</ul>


We analyse markets of South Korea, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, China, Europe, and the US to study extreme dispersion, extracting repeatable, factor-driven signals beyond macro growth narrative.

Across these markets, returns were driven by earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery; stability, defensiveness, and high quality without momentum underperformed.

Cyclicality and operating leverage outperformed, while revenue growth mattered only when converting into earnings and cash, reinforcing bottom-up capital allocation over GDP-led narratives.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Despite relatively healthy revenue growth from retailers in Southeast Asia, specifically retailers, the share prices of listed consumer companies have been weak, with valuations being compressed to historically low levels.</li>
<li>The long-term consumption theme for Southeast Asia is intact, as consumers become more affluent and aspirational in their shopping habits, and naturally consume more. </li>
<li>Our view is that the Southeast Asian consumer is alive and well, but has been going through a cautious period given local political issues in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines.</li>
</ul>


Despite relatively healthy revenue growth from retailers in Southeast Asia, specifically retailers, the share prices of listed consumer companies have been weak, with valuations being compressed to historically low levels.
The long-term consumption theme for Southeast Asia is intact, as consumers become more affluent and aspirational in their shopping habits, and naturally consume more. 
Our view is that the Southeast Asian consumer is alive and well, but has been going through a cautious period given local political issues in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines.


<ul><li>We expect govt fiscal expansion to boost gradual demand recovery, while store expansion remains the key growth driver for retailers in FY26F.</li><li>We project sector’s rev. growth of +8.7% yoy in FY26F driven by store expansion and gradual SSSG recovery, with modest margin improvement.</li><li>Maintain Overweight on the sector; preferred picks are MIDI (Buy, TP Rp550) and MAPA (Buy, TP Rp800). Govt fiscal expansion to support gradual</li></ul>Content is an external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect govt fiscal expansion to boost gradual demand recovery, while store expansion remains the key growth driver for retailers in FY26F.We project sector’s rev. growth of +8.7% yoy in FY26F driven by store expansion and gradual SSSG recovery, with modest margin improvement.Maintain Overweight on the sector; preferred picks are MIDI (Buy, TP Rp550) and MAPA (Buy, TP Rp800). Govt fiscal expansion to support gradualContent is an external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Retail: FY26 Outlook: Fiscal Boost and Store Expansion Drive Steady Growth in FY26F (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We estimate 3Q25/9M25 sector revenue growth of +6.5/+6.9% yoy, relatively in line with ours’ and consensus’ est.</li><li>As we expect margins to normalize, core profit growth is estimated to be flat yoy in 9M25, likely falling short of our estimates.</li><li>Maintain Overweight on the sector; preferred picks are MIDI (Buy, TP Rp550) and MAPA (Buy, TP Rp800).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate 3Q25/9M25 sector revenue growth of +6.5/+6.9% yoy, relatively in line with ours’ and consensus’ est.As we expect margins to normalize, core profit growth is estimated to be flat yoy in 9M25, likely falling short of our estimates.Maintain Overweight on the sector; preferred picks are MIDI (Buy, TP Rp550) and MAPA (Buy, TP Rp800).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Retail: 3Q25 Preview: Steady Revenue, But Earnings May Come Under Pressure (OVERWEIGHT)

Indonesia

PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk is a multi-brand retail company in Indonesia that provides home improvement products, lifestyle products, and toys through a network of retail outlets and online platforms. The company manages retail brands such as AZKO, Pendopo, ATARU, and NEKA, and operates an integrated omnichannel platform under ruparupa. It was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)

Retail: 4Q25 Preview: Expansion-Led Growth, SSSG Gradually Recovering (OVERWEIGHT)

Given the manageable opex, we expect sector op profit to increase by +6.6% yoy in 4Q25 with estimated core profit growth of +4.1% yoy.

BRI Danareksa Research

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

CrossASEAN Strategy - Consumption Purge

Despite relatively healthy revenue growth from retailers in Southeast Asia, the share prices of listed consumer companies have been weak, with...

Angus Mackintosh

Retail: FY26 Outlook: Fiscal Boost and Store Expansion Drive Steady Growth in FY26F (OVERWEIGHT)

We expect govt fiscal expansion to boost gradual demand recovery, while store expansion remains the key growth driver for retailers in FY26F.

BRI Danareksa Research

Retail: 3Q25 Preview: Steady Revenue, But Earnings May Come Under Pressure (OVERWEIGHT)

As we expect margins to normalize, core profit growth is estimated to be flat yoy in 9M25, likely falling short of our estimates. Maintain...

BRI Danareksa Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Retail: 4Q25 Preview: Expansion-Led Growth, SSSG Gradually Recovering (OVERWEIGHT)

Given the manageable opex, we expect sector op profit to increase by +6.6% yoy in 4Q25 with estimated core profit growth of +4.1% yoy.

BRI Danareksa Research

2025 Learnings | Short the Stagnant

​Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...

Pranav Bhavsar

CrossASEAN Strategy - Consumption Purge

Despite relatively healthy revenue growth from retailers in Southeast Asia, the share prices of listed consumer companies have been weak, with...

Angus Mackintosh

Retail: FY26 Outlook: Fiscal Boost and Store Expansion Drive Steady Growth in FY26F (OVERWEIGHT)

We expect govt fiscal expansion to boost gradual demand recovery, while store expansion remains the key growth driver for retailers in FY26F.

BRI Danareksa Research

Retail: 3Q25 Preview: Steady Revenue, But Earnings May Come Under Pressure (OVERWEIGHT)

As we expect margins to normalize, core profit growth is estimated to be flat yoy in 9M25, likely falling short of our estimates. Maintain...

BRI Danareksa Research

Analysis of across markets showed that earnings inflection, ROE improvement, and cash-flow recovery drove returns, highlighting the importance of...