Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>September 2026 national car wholesales rose 28% YoY, but Astra's 9M26 volume grew only 13% versus 21% for the industry, reducing its market share to 49.3%.</li>
<li>Mining-Linked risks dominate the downside. UNTR's cash generation deteriorated sharply, while Martabe's unresolved permit status adds material uncertainty to gold earnings.</li>
<li>The discount is not enough yet. Our indicative NAV implies a 13% discount, but stabilising margins and cash generation remain unproven. BEARISH; low-to-moderate conviction.</li>
</ul>


September 2026 national car wholesales rose 28% YoY, but Astra's 9M26 volume grew only 13% versus 21% for the industry, reducing its market share to 49.3%.
Mining-Linked risks dominate the downside. UNTR's cash generation deteriorated sharply, while Martabe's unresolved permit status adds material uncertainty to gold earnings.
The discount is not enough yet. Our indicative NAV implies a 13% discount, but stabilising margins and cash generation remain unproven. BEARISH; low-to-moderate conviction.


Astra International (ASII): A Discount on Paper, a Cash-Earnings Test in Practice

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 317% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 317% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%


<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 312% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 179%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 312% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 179%


<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 295% versus the MSCI ASEAN's  59%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 295% versus the MSCI ASEAN's  59%


<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 278% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 151%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 278% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 151%


Indonesia

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk is a leading Indonesian agribusiness company primarily engaged in oil palm cultivation and the production of crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil. The company manages extensive plantations across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi, and operates palm oil mills and refineries to produce various derivatives. It sells its palm-based raw materials to industrial buyers globally. The company was established in 1988 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ)

Astra International (ASII): A Discount on Paper, a Cash-Earnings Test in Practice

Auto sales are recovering, but Astra is losing share. UNTR earnings and cash flow are weakening, yet ASII is buying back shares. Is its 13% NAV...

Defriansyah Has

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 54

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added...

A. Stotz Investment Research

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 52

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the...

A. Stotz Investment Research

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 53

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 51

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)