Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>September 2026 national car wholesales rose 28% YoY, but Astra's 9M26 volume grew only 13% versus 21% for the industry, reducing its market share to 49.3%.</li>
<li>Mining-Linked risks dominate the downside. UNTR's cash generation deteriorated sharply, while Martabe's unresolved permit status adds material uncertainty to gold earnings.</li>
<li>The discount is not enough yet. Our indicative NAV implies a 13% discount, but stabilising margins and cash generation remain unproven. BEARISH; low-to-moderate conviction.</li>
</ul>


September 2026 national car wholesales rose 28% YoY, but Astra's 9M26 volume grew only 13% versus 21% for the industry, reducing its market share to 49.3%.
Mining-Linked risks dominate the downside. UNTR's cash generation deteriorated sharply, while Martabe's unresolved permit status adds material uncertainty to gold earnings.
The discount is not enough yet. Our indicative NAV implies a 13% discount, but stabilising margins and cash generation remain unproven. BEARISH; low-to-moderate conviction.


Astra International (ASII): A Discount on Paper, a Cash-Earnings Test in Practice

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>UOBKH maintains 'buy' on United Hampshire US REIT amid retail sector revival.</li><li>Phillip Securities initiates 'buy' rating for JEP at 83 cents.</li><li>JP Morgan recommends reducing DBS and OCBC holdings, favoring UOB instead.</li></ul>

UOBKH maintains 'buy' on United Hampshire US REIT amid retail sector revival.Phillip Securities initiates 'buy' rating for JEP at 83 cents.JP Morgan recommends reducing DBS and OCBC holdings, favoring UOB instead.

Singapore Market Roundup (08-Oct-2026): UOBKH keeps 'buy' on United Hampshire US REIT as retail

<ul><li>RHB stays 'overweight' on Singapore banks; raises UOB's TP with rising rates.</li><li>Macquarie downgrades JMSEA to 'underperform' due to premium over NAV.</li><li>Citi downgrades OCBC to 'sell' with a target price of $27.50.</li></ul>

RHB stays 'overweight' on Singapore banks; raises UOB's TP with rising rates.Macquarie downgrades JMSEA to 'underperform' due to premium over NAV.Citi downgrades OCBC to 'sell' with a target price of $27.50.

Singapore Market Roundup (07-Oct-2026): RHB remains 'overweight' on Singapore banks; boosts UOB

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.</li>
</ul>


Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.
Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.
The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.


Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Average weights have fallen to an all-time low of 0.93%, with fund participation at a 15-year low of 80.45% — yet the majority of active EM managers remain invested.</li>
<li>Selling has been concentrated in domestic banks, with Bank Central Asia seeing the largest outright closures, while ASEAN allocations as a whole have dropped to their lowest level on record.</li>
<li>With MSCI’s verdict on Indonesia’s EM status still pending, the country sits firmly in negative momentum territory, but for many funds, much of the pain may already be behind them.</li>
</ul>


Average weights have fallen to an all-time low of 0.93%, with fund participation at a 15-year low of 80.45% — yet the majority of active EM managers remain invested.
Selling has been concentrated in domestic banks, with Bank Central Asia seeing the largest outright closures, while ASEAN allocations as a whole have dropped to their lowest level on record.
With MSCI’s verdict on Indonesia’s EM status still pending, the country sits firmly in negative momentum territory, but for many funds, much of the pain may already be behind them.


Indonesia

Astra International is a leading Indonesian conglomerate with a highly diversified business portfolio across seven main segments: automotive, financial services, heavy equipment, mining, construction, agribusiness, infrastructure, information technology, and property. The company manufactures, distributes, and services vehicles, provides financial and insurance services, and is involved in palm oil plantations, logistics, and property development. It was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Astra International (ASII IJ)

Astra International (ASII): A Discount on Paper, a Cash-Earnings Test in Practice

Auto sales are recovering, but Astra is losing share. UNTR earnings and cash flow are weakening, yet ASII is buying back shares. Is its 13% NAV...

Defriansyah Has

Singapore Market Roundup (08-Oct-2026): UOBKH keeps 'buy' on United Hampshire US REIT as retail

UOBKH keeps 'buy' on United Hampshire US REIT; Phillip Securities starts 'buy' on JEP at 83 cents; JP Morgan advises reducing DBS and OCBC, prefers...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (07-Oct-2026): RHB remains 'overweight' on Singapore banks; boosts UOB

RHB remains 'overweight' on Singapore banks and raises UOB's target price. Macquarie downgrades JMSEA to 'underperform,' while Citi downgrades OCBC...

Singapore Market Roundup

Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

This is going be a huge theme today for Indonesia. The price movements of a lot of stocks have raised issues in the past with global index...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia: Record Lows But Not Abandoned

Average weights have fallen to an all-time low of 0.93%, with fund participation at a 15-year low of 80.45% — yet the majority of active EM...

Steven Holden

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