ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Catur Sentosa Adiprana / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catur-sentosa-adiprana-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18671:1" rel="noopener">Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ)</a> has grown rapidly from a building material distribution company into the leading retailer in building materials and home improvement through Mitra10 and shop-in-shop Atria. </li>
<li>The company already has 52 Mitra10 superstores in Indonesia, with six distribution centres across the country, selling a range of home decoration products, with an increasing portion of private labels.</li>
<li>CSAP has seen a market improvement in margins for Mitra10 through more private label and scale benefits, and margins will continue to improve. Valuations are attractive with earnings growth accelerating. </li>
</ul>



Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown rapidly from a building material distribution company into the leading retailer in building materials and home improvement through Mitra10 and shop-in-shop Atria. 
The company already has 52 Mitra10 superstores in Indonesia, with six distribution centres across the country, selling a range of home decoration products, with an increasing portion of private labels.
CSAP has seen a market improvement in margins for Mitra10 through more private label and scale benefits, and margins will continue to improve. Valuations are attractive with earnings growth accelerating. 


PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana - One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>We screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Asia Ex-Japan equity funds.</li>
<li>High Positioning, Negative Momentum: AIA Group Limited, Shenzhen Inovance Technology </li>
<li>Low Positioning, Positive Momentum: New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group, Shinhan Financial Group</li>
</ul>


We screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Asia Ex-Japan equity funds.
High Positioning, Negative Momentum: AIA Group Limited, Shenzhen Inovance Technology 
Low Positioning, Positive Momentum: New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group, Shinhan Financial Group


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> saw a pronounced pick up in sales in 4Q2023 and the ongoing benefit of lower raw material prices boosted margins to 5-year highs. </li>
<li>The company expanded its distribution in 2023 and will continue in 2024, which coupled with new product launches, especially of economic products, should help to drive higher growth in 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian</a> continues to drive its express service, which also helps to push new product growth. Its market leadership and track record justify valuations with further support from dividends.</li>
</ul>



PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) saw a pronounced pick up in sales in 4Q2023 and the ongoing benefit of lower raw material prices boosted margins to 5-year highs. 
The company expanded its distribution in 2023 and will continue in 2024, which coupled with new product launches, especially of economic products, should help to drive higher growth in 2024. 

PT Avia Avian continues to drive its express service, which also helps to push new product growth. Its market leadership and track record justify valuations with further support from dividends.


PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) - An Attractive Tint to 2024 Prospects

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>The management’s latest guidance is cautiously optimistic with FY24 volume growth of 4-8% yoy for 6-10% top line growth. </li><li>2M24 sales depict a mixed view. We revise up our forecast of FY24-25F net profit forecast by 5.6% and 5.8% due to higher gross margins</li><li>Soft sales volume may pose risk to our forecast. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of Rp660, implying FY24F PE of 24.4x.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The management’s latest guidance is cautiously optimistic with FY24 volume growth of 4-8% yoy for 6-10% top line growth. 2M24 sales depict a mixed view. We revise up our forecast of FY24-25F net profit forecast by 5.6% and 5.8% due to higher gross marginsSoft sales volume may pose risk to our forecast. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of Rp660, implying FY24F PE of 24.4x.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Avia Avian Tbk (AVIA IJ) - Cautiously Optimistic FY24 Outlook

Indonesia

PT Avia Avian Tbk manufactures and distributes paints and building materials in Indonesia, operating in Architectural Solutions and Trading Goods segments. The company offers a wide range of products including wall, wood, and metal paints, waterproofing solutions, instant cement, and adhesives. It was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Sidoarjo, Indonesia.

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Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana - One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown from a building material distribution company into the leading Indonesian retailer in building materials...

Angus Mackintosh

Asia Ex-Japan: Extreme Stocks

We screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges. We combine current and historical data with recent manager...

Steven Holden

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) - An Attractive Tint to 2024 Prospects

PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) saw a pronounced pick up in sales in 4Q2023 and the ongoing benefit of lower raw material prices boosted margins to 5-yeat...

Angus Mackintosh

Avia Avian Tbk (AVIA IJ) - Cautiously Optimistic FY24 Outlook

2M24 sales depict a mixed view. We revise up our forecast of FY24-25F net profit forecast by 5.6% and 5.8% due to higher gross margins

BRI Danareksa Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana - One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown from a building material distribution company into the leading Indonesian retailer in building materials...

Angus Mackintosh

Asia Ex-Japan: Extreme Stocks

We screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges. We combine current and historical data with recent manager...

Steven Holden

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) - An Attractive Tint to 2024 Prospects

PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) saw a pronounced pick up in sales in 4Q2023 and the ongoing benefit of lower raw material prices boosted margins to 5-yeat...

Angus Mackintosh

Avia Avian Tbk (AVIA IJ) - Cautiously Optimistic FY24 Outlook

2M24 sales depict a mixed view. We revise up our forecast of FY24-25F net profit forecast by 5.6% and 5.8% due to higher gross margins

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks