Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,100+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we examine the exodus of capital from Indonesia, a web of corporate actions in the delivery sector, and the structural hurdles to a Glencore/Rio Tinto merger. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,100+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we examine the exodus of capital from Indonesia, a web of corporate actions in the delivery sector, and the structural hurdles to a Glencore/Rio Tinto merger. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Indonesia's Outflows, Delivery Deal-Flow, & Rio's Dual-Listed Dilemma

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Driven by lower earning asset yield amid lower interest rate environment, offsetting the lower CoF, we expect lower NIM for FY26F.</li><li>We forecast FY26 net profit growth of 2% yoy driven by higher loan growth and lower credit costs, offsetting the lower NIM.</li><li>We roll forward our valuation to FY26F with ROE of 19.8% and CoE of 6.8%, resulting in a lower TP of Rp10,800, i.e., maintain BUY rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Driven by lower earning asset yield amid lower interest rate environment, offsetting the lower CoF, we expect lower NIM for FY26F.We forecast FY26 net profit growth of 2% yoy driven by higher loan growth and lower credit costs, offsetting the lower NIM.We roll forward our valuation to FY26F with ROE of 19.8% and CoE of 6.8%, resulting in a lower TP of Rp10,800, i.e., maintain BUY rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ): Higher Volume and Better Asset Quality to Drive Earnings Growth

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>BRIDS Market Pulse In the spotlight JCI major correction and foreign outflow post MSCI comment JCI posted a -6.9% w-w correction alongside US$831mn of foreign outflows following MSCI’s latest statement on Indonesia.</li><li>Selling pressure was most visible in index-aspirant names (IMPC, BUMI, MORA), followed by several MSCI-heavy / large-liquid names (BREN, BRMS, BBCA, DSSA).</li><li>On the other hand, GOTO outperformed on domestic and foreign buying amid renewed merger speculation...</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse In the spotlight JCI major correction and foreign outflow post MSCI comment JCI posted a -6.9% w-w correction alongside US$831mn of foreign outflows following MSCI’s latest statement on Indonesia.Selling pressure was most visible in index-aspirant names (IMPC, BUMI, MORA), followed by several MSCI-heavy / large-liquid names (BREN, BRMS, BBCA, DSSA).On the other hand, GOTO outperformed on domestic and foreign buying amid renewed merger speculation...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – JCI vs. LQ45 Forward P/E Band

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Equity Strategy Repricing the Risk; Potential Tactical Reliefs to Emerge.</li><li>JCI’s risk premium has reset higher on fiscal pressure, policy noise, negative sovereign outlooks, and MSCI deletions/ down-weight.</li><li>We see three ST potential tactical reliefs: foreign flow exhaustion, easing seasonal Rupiah pressure and the oil/war narrative peak. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy Repricing the Risk; Potential Tactical Reliefs to Emerge.JCI’s risk premium has reset higher on fiscal pressure, policy noise, negative sovereign outlooks, and MSCI deletions/ down-weight.We see three ST potential tactical reliefs: foreign flow exhaustion, easing seasonal Rupiah pressure and the oil/war narrative peak. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Repricing the Risk; Potential Tactical Reliefs to Emerge

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, Bank Central Asia, Merdeka Copper Gold.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, Bank Central Asia, Merdeka Copper Gold.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia

Indonesia

Bank Central Asia Tbk is an Indonesian commercial bank that provides a comprehensive range of banking solutions, including individual, commercial, and corporate banking services. Its offerings encompass savings accounts, credit cards, investment products, various types of loans, and electronic banking services such as mobile and internet banking. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Curator's Cut: Indonesia's Outflows, Delivery Deal-Flow, & Rio's Dual-Listed Dilemma

This Curator's Cut issue highlights the capital exodus from Indonesia, corporate actions in the delivery sector, and the DLC hurdles to Glencore...

Pranav Rao