Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-bank-central-asia-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>  earnings engine remains intact—CASA above 85%, loans regaining share, and ROE near 22%—despite an NIM recovery that remains unproven.</li>
<li>Our fair value range is Rp4,928–Rp7,965, with Base Case at Rp6,520 versus the Rp6,700 reference price—downside skews larger than upside.</li>
<li>The 2024 peak price was supported by NIM expansion (+30bps) and CIR improvement (-2.6pp); today, NIM is 50bps lower and loan growth has slowed to ~8%, narrowing upside.</li>
</ul>



Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)  earnings engine remains intact—CASA above 85%, loans regaining share, and ROE near 22%—despite an NIM recovery that remains unproven.
Our fair value range is Rp4,928–Rp7,965, with Base Case at Rp6,520 versus the Rp6,700 reference price—downside skews larger than upside.
The 2024 peak price was supported by NIM expansion (+30bps) and CIR improvement (-2.6pp); today, NIM is 50bps lower and loan growth has slowed to ~8%, narrowing upside.


Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) — Priced As If Today Lasts Forever?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.</li>
</ul>


Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.
Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.
The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.


Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Average weights have fallen to an all-time low of 0.93%, with fund participation at a 15-year low of 80.45% — yet the majority of active EM managers remain invested.</li>
<li>Selling has been concentrated in domestic banks, with Bank Central Asia seeing the largest outright closures, while ASEAN allocations as a whole have dropped to their lowest level on record.</li>
<li>With MSCI’s verdict on Indonesia’s EM status still pending, the country sits firmly in negative momentum territory, but for many funds, much of the pain may already be behind them.</li>
</ul>


Average weights have fallen to an all-time low of 0.93%, with fund participation at a 15-year low of 80.45% — yet the majority of active EM managers remain invested.
Selling has been concentrated in domestic banks, with Bank Central Asia seeing the largest outright closures, while ASEAN allocations as a whole have dropped to their lowest level on record.
With MSCI’s verdict on Indonesia’s EM status still pending, the country sits firmly in negative momentum territory, but for many funds, much of the pain may already be behind them.


<ul>
<li>Indonesia fund positioning has collapsed, with average weights and participation falling to 15-year lows; 7.2% of funds exited entirely in the past six months.</li>
<li>Exposure remains highly concentrated, with five stocks making up 75% of allocations—yet even these names have seen sharp declines in ownership.</li>
<li>The median weight sits well below the average, reflecting how a narrow group of high-conviction funds is skewing overall exposure amid a broad-based retreat.</li>
</ul>


Indonesia fund positioning has collapsed, with average weights and participation falling to 15-year lows; 7.2% of funds exited entirely in the past six months.
Exposure remains highly concentrated, with five stocks making up 75% of allocations—yet even these names have seen sharp declines in ownership.
The median weight sits well below the average, reflecting how a narrow group of high-conviction funds is skewing overall exposure amid a broad-based retreat.


Indonesia: Asia Ex-Japan Investors Lose Confidence

<ul>
<li>The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.</li>
<li>Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.</li>
<li>Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.</li>
</ul>


The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.
Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.
Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.


ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

Indonesia

Bank Central Asia Tbk is an Indonesian commercial bank that provides a comprehensive range of banking solutions, including individual, commercial, and corporate banking services. Its offerings encompass savings accounts, credit cards, investment products, various types of loans, and electronic banking services such as mobile and internet banking. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)