Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The purge out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> for Barito Group of companies has happened, causing the share prices to drop even lower. </li>
<li>As a result, the large bank stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and others should receive a higher weightings in the index, causing more inflows to the counters. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> is not only more advanced in providing lowest cost of fundings but also most transparent compared to other banks as well as other companies. </li>
</ul>


The purge out of Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) for Barito Group of companies has happened, causing the share prices to drop even lower. 
As a result, the large bank stocks like Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and others should receive a higher weightings in the index, causing more inflows to the counters. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is not only more advanced in providing lowest cost of fundings but also most transparent compared to other banks as well as other companies. 


iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>  is to be excluded from the index, the larger caps i.e. banks are expected to receive the subsequent reallocation of inflows. </li>
<li>The outflows so far (YTD) mainly came from active managers; thus, more could come from passive flows. </li>
<li>If Vietnam were to be included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-emerging-markets-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22892:1" rel="noopener">MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)</a>, the weighting would likely be small, therefore, with negligible impact on Indonesia's weighting. </li>
</ul>


If Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)  is to be excluded from the index, the larger caps i.e. banks are expected to receive the subsequent reallocation of inflows. 
The outflows so far (YTD) mainly came from active managers; thus, more could come from passive flows. 
If Vietnam were to be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX), the weighting would likely be small, therefore, with negligible impact on Indonesia's weighting. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17865:1" rel="noopener">MSCI Inc (MSCI US)</a> did not downgrade but chose to wait and see the OJK's execution and impact on the Indonesian capital market. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> earnings result is relatively decent that provide support to the share price, while low free floaters underperformed. </li>
<li>Softening auto loan growth should not be seen as a real risk, as it was caused by macroeconomic conditions and a shift in consumer spending pattern. </li>
</ul>



MSCI Inc (MSCI US) did not downgrade but chose to wait and see the OJK's execution and impact on the Indonesian capital market. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) earnings result is relatively decent that provide support to the share price, while low free floaters underperformed. 
Softening auto loan growth should not be seen as a real risk, as it was caused by macroeconomic conditions and a shift in consumer spending pattern. 


Bank Central Asia (BBCA): MSCI Downgrade Beneficiary

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index, and 5 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>Following their inclusion on the High Shareholding Concentration list, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> will be deleted from the LQ45 and IDX80 indices.</li>
<li>While the size of the passive AUM is small, a lot of active funds use the LQ45 Index as a benchmark and could sell BREN/DSSA before the global index trackers.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index, and 5 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
Following their inclusion on the High Shareholding Concentration list, Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be deleted from the LQ45 and IDX80 indices.
While the size of the passive AUM is small, a lot of active funds use the LQ45 Index as a benchmark and could sell BREN/DSSA before the global index trackers.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)</a>'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.</li>
<li>I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.</li>
<li>IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a> and 64.7%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> are both uninvestable.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.
I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.
IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ) and 64.7%-held Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) are both uninvestable.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

Indonesia

PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk is an Indonesian holding company that generates and sells power through geothermal and wind resources. It is a leading clean energy infrastructure company focused on providing cleaner and lower emission energy. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)

Indonesia: MSCI Downgrade - Transparency

Purge from Jakarta Stock Exchange Index leads to drop in share prices for Barito Group, boosting weightings for Bank Central Asia and other large...

Henry Soediarko

Indo Downgrade: May Update

Excluding Barito Renewables Energy from the index could lead to reallocation of inflows to larger caps like banks, with potential outflows from...

Henry Soediarko

Bank Central Asia (BBCA): MSCI Downgrade Beneficiary

MSCI Inc waits on OJK impact in Indonesia; BCA earnings support share price. Softening auto loan growth not a real risk due to macroeconomic...

Henry Soediarko

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Barito Renewables and Dian Swastatika Sentosa are deletions from local indices this week. Passive tracking AUM is small but active managers use the...

Brian Freitas

Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesia: MSCI Downgrade - Transparency

​Purge from Jakarta Stock Exchange Index leads to drop in share prices for Barito Group, boosting weightings for Bank Central Asia and other large...

Henry Soediarko

Indo Downgrade: May Update

​Excluding Barito Renewables Energy from the index could lead to reallocation of inflows to larger caps like banks, with potential outflows from...

Henry Soediarko

Bank Central Asia (BBCA): MSCI Downgrade Beneficiary

​MSCI Inc waits on OJK impact in Indonesia; BCA earnings support share price. Softening auto loan growth not a real risk due to macroeconomic...

Henry Soediarko

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Barito Renewables and Dian Swastatika Sentosa are deletions from local indices this week. Passive tracking AUM is small but active managers use the...

Brian Freitas

Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Purge from Jakarta Stock Exchange Index leads to drop in share prices for Barito Group, boosting weightings for Bank Central Asia and other large...

Excluding Barito Renewables Energy from the index could lead to reallocation of inflows to larger caps like banks, with potential outflows from...

MSCI Inc waits on OJK impact in Indonesia; BCA earnings support share price. Softening auto loan growth not a real risk due to macroeconomic...

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices