Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
I was wrong. In <a href="https://skr.ma/kJ6vr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair</a><a href="https://skr.ma/kJ6vr," target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> I said the Offer needed a bump, but that outcome was looking less likely.</li>
<li>The Widjaja family has now<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Revision%20of%20Offer%20Price%20and%20Extension%20of%20Closing%20Date%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=845075" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> bumped terms to S$0.375/shar</a>e, up from S$0.31/share, or a 21% increase. Terms have not been declared final.</li>
<li>The IFA's estimated fair value range for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a> was S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. Expect a follow-up opinion revising their conclusion to "Fair and Reasonable" from "Not Fair but Reasonable".</li>
</ul>



I was wrong. In Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair, I said the Offer needed a bump, but that outcome was looking less likely.
The Widjaja family has now bumped terms to S$0.375/share, up from S$0.31/share, or a 21% increase. Terms have not been declared final.
The IFA's estimated fair value range for Sinarmas Land (SML SP) was S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. Expect a follow-up opinion revising their conclusion to "Fair and Reasonable" from "Not Fair but Reasonable".


Sinarmas Land (SML SP): The Family Bumps Terms After All

<ul>
<li>Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a> not held.</li>
<li>Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.</li>
<li>The IFA agreed and said "Not Fair but Reasonable", with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.</li>
</ul>


Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
The IFA agreed and said "Not Fair but Reasonable", with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.


Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3121:1" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci's</a> results made for interesting reading with underlying profitability improving in its real estate and lifestyle segments as it reduced its Siloam stake and reduced its debt.</li>
<li>Real estate marketing sales in 1H2024 made up 58% of FY2024 guidance, with affordable landed housing driving growth across multiple projects targeting first-time buyers utilising readily available mortgages.</li>
<li>LPKR further reduced its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospitals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospitals</a> in September through the tender offer and will further reduce its debt with proceeds. LPKR is back on the investor radar.</li>
</ul>



Lippo Karawaci's results made for interesting reading with underlying profitability improving in its real estate and lifestyle segments as it reduced its Siloam stake and reduced its debt.
Real estate marketing sales in 1H2024 made up 58% of FY2024 guidance, with affordable landed housing driving growth across multiple projects targeting first-time buyers utilising readily available mortgages.
LPKR further reduced its holding in Siloam International Hospitals in September through the tender offer and will further reduce its debt with proceeds. LPKR is back on the investor radar.


Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) - Building Solid Foundations

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>BSDE's projects boast the key value-add of strong connectivity, which we expect to support a 4% CAGR growth in FY24F-26F core pre-sales.</li><li>Our channel check on the new launches indicates potential Rp188bn in pre-sales in 3Q24; this leads us to raise our FY24F target by 23%.</li><li>We resume coverage with a Buy rating and RNAV-based TP of Rp1,550; Key risks are related to pre-sales growth and awaited ROE improvement.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BSDE's projects boast the key value-add of strong connectivity, which we expect to support a 4% CAGR growth in FY24F-26F core pre-sales.Our channel check on the new launches indicates potential Rp188bn in pre-sales in 3Q24; this leads us to raise our FY24F target by 23%.We resume coverage with a Buy rating and RNAV-based TP of Rp1,550; Key risks are related to pre-sales growth and awaited ROE improvement.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bumi Serpong Damai - Well-Connected Township Remains Key Selling Points...

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>BSDE recorded revenues of IDR7.3tn in 1H24 or grew by 67.9% YoY (vs IDR5.0tn in 1H23).</li><li>Sales from residential, land, and commercial sectors, accounted for 88% of the 1H24 revenues.</li><li>While the remaining 12% came from rental, hotel, estate management, water, recreation, toll road operating services, and construction.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BSDE recorded revenues of IDR7.3tn in 1H24 or grew by 67.9% YoY (vs IDR5.0tn in 1H23).Sales from residential, land, and commercial sectors, accounted for 88% of the 1H24 revenues.While the remaining 12% came from rental, hotel, estate management, water, recreation, toll road operating services, and construction.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BSDE IJ - More Focus On Residential and Shop-House

Indonesia

PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk is a prominent Indonesian real estate developer specializing in integrated urban development. The company develops residential, commercial, and mixed-use properties, including townships, housing areas, commercial spaces, retail areas, industrial estates, and hospitality properties. Its flagship project is the master-planned BSD City, an integrated residential and business area. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.

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Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)

Sinarmas Land (SML SP): The Family Bumps Terms After All

This deserved a bump. and that is what unfolded. If in, tender. Or possibly sell at terms in the marlket. If not in, I'd look elsewhere. I doubt...

David Blennerhassett

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

This deserved a bump. But that scenario appears increasingly less likely. If illiquid arbs are your thing, and already in, I'd hit the bid. If not...

David Blennerhassett

Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) - Building Solid Foundations

Lippo Karawaci's results made for interesting reading with underlying profitability improving in its real estate and lifestyle segments as it...

Angus Mackintosh

Bumi Serpong Damai - Well-Connected Township Remains Key Selling Points...

BSDE's projects boast the key value-add of strong connectivity, which we expect to support a 4% CAGR growth in FY24F-26F core pre-sales.

BRI Danareksa Research

BSDE IJ - More Focus On Residential and Shop-House

BSDE recorded revenues of IDR7.3tn in 1H24 or grew by 67.9% YoY (vs IDR5.0tn in 1H23). Sales from residential, land, and commercial sectors,...

MNC Sekuritas

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