Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> is down 19% in the past month. But still accounts for ~730% of parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a>'s market cap. Still unsustainable.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Barito complex AND the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> Holdco, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation (sub/parent) &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) is down 19% in the past month. But still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)'s market cap. Still unsustainable.
Preceding my comments on the Barito complex AND the Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) / KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Holdco, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation (sub/parent) &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

<ul>
<li>It's just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>, which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. </li>
<li>A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>. Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.</li>
<li>Loo Choon Yong, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raffles-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:879:1" rel="noopener">Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)</a>'s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,</li>
</ul>


It's just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. 
A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)'s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a>'s 64.7% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> (now Indonesia’s largest company by market cap), is worth 8x its market cap. That's unsustainable.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Barito complex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)'s 64.7% stake in Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) (now Indonesia’s largest company by market cap), is worth 8x its market cap. That's unsustainable.
Preceding my comments on the Barito complex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

Indonesia

Chandra Asri Pacific is Southeast Asia's leading energy, chemical, and infrastructure solutions company. It operates Indonesia's largest integrated petrochemical complex, producing olefins, polyolefins, styrene monomer, and butadiene, used in various industrial applications. The company also provides energy, water, logistics, ports, and storage services. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was founded in 1984.

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Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA IJ)

StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

Barito Renewables is down 19% in the past month. Yet still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific's market cap. Still unsustainable. Plus...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop

I don't know what is going on. I do know BREN's share price will decline. All stocks - parent and subs - are uninvestable in my view.

David Blennerhassett

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

Barito Renewables is down 19% in the past month. Yet still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific's market cap. Still unsustainable. Plus...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop

I don't know what is going on. I do know BREN's share price will decline. All stocks - parent and subs - are uninvestable in my view.

David Blennerhassett

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks