Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.</p>
<div>Compared to other listed breweries in the region, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. </div>
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<div>Compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. </div>
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<p>Since 6 months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.</p>

The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.
Compared to other listed breweries in the region, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. 

Compared to CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) and Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. 

Since 6 months ago, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

<p>The recent outbreak in Thailand may force the Thai government to initiate a nightlife entertainment ban and in-restaurant dining, two of the key critical avenues for alcoholic beverage sales for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> . Although it is still uncertain on the timing and duration, it is a big ask to keep the stock in the portfolio for the time being. </p>
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<p>With fewer revenue contributions from alcoholic beverages, the company's EBITDA can easily go down by 10-20% again although it is unclear when the Thai government will initiate the night entertainment and in-restaurant ban. <strong>Investors should take the profit and stay out of Thai Beverage stock until there is clarity. </strong></p>
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The recent outbreak in Thailand may force the Thai government to initiate a nightlife entertainment ban and in-restaurant dining, two of the key critical avenues for alcoholic beverage sales for Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) . Although it is still uncertain on the timing and duration, it is a big ask to keep the stock in the portfolio for the time being. 

With fewer revenue contributions from alcoholic beverages, the company's EBITDA can easily go down by 10-20% again although it is unclear when the Thai government will initiate the night entertainment and in-restaurant ban. Investors should take the profit and stay out of Thai Beverage stock until there is clarity. 


Thai Beverage (Thbev): Imminent Risk Ahead

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand. The Thai government has proposed to exempt Chinese tourists from the required 14-day quarantine by 2021 and replace that with an app or token to trace their whereabouts during their holiday in Thailand. With the positive vaccine announcement, this initiative will be rolled out sooner rather than later and possibly be expanded for other countries too which means the number of tourists in Thailand will soon resume to the almost pre-COVID-19 level. </p>
<p>At 16x PER, 2.8x PBR, and 13.4 EV/EBITDA, Thai Beverage is trading at a  <strong>63% PER discount, 76% PBR discount, and 36% EV/EBITDA discount </strong>to the regional brewery peers<strong> and a 65% PER discount, 53% PBR discount, and 50% EV/EBITDA discount to the </strong>other Thai tourism-related stocks. </p>

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in SGX (SGX SP) with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand. The Thai government has proposed to exempt Chinese tourists from the required 14-day quarantine by 2021 and replace that with an app or token to trace their whereabouts during their holiday in Thailand. With the positive vaccine announcement, this initiative will be rolled out sooner rather than later and possibly be expanded for other countries too which means the number of tourists in Thailand will soon resume to the almost pre-COVID-19 level. 
At 16x PER, 2.8x PBR, and 13.4 EV/EBITDA, Thai Beverage is trading at a  63% PER discount, 76% PBR discount, and 36% EV/EBITDA discount to the regional brewery peers and a 65% PER discount, 53% PBR discount, and 50% EV/EBITDA discount to the other Thai tourism-related stocks. 

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Brewing for Reopening

Indonesia

PT Delta Djakarta Tbk is an Indonesian company specializing in the beverage industry. It manufactures and distributes a variety of beers, lagers, and stouts under brands like Anker Beer, Carlsberg, and San Miguel, and also offers non-alcoholic beverages such as Sodaku and Soda Ice. The company exports its products to domestic and international markets. PT Delta Djakarta Tbk was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Bekasi, Indonesia.

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Delta Djakarta (DLTA IJ)

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Imminent Risk Ahead

Less revenue from alcoholic drinks, EBITDA to go down again though unclear when the government will initiate the nightlife ban. Investors should...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Brewing for Reopening

Thai Beverage is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in Singapore with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand.

Henry Soediarko

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