Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

CEO Irfan Setiaputra has confirmed that Garuda willآ not default on or restructure the USD 500 mn 2020 Notes, with the airline finalising a term sheet with local institutions to refinance the bonds. However, the business has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in terms of the international market.

  CEO Irfan Setiaputra has confirmed that Garuda willآ not default on or restructure the USD 500 mn 2020 Notes, with the airline finalising a term sheet with local institutions to refinance the bonds. However, the business has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in terms of the international market. 

Garuda Indonesia - Event Flash - No Default Or Restructuring - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-12151'>Garuda Indonesia (Persero)</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-810'>Melco Resorts & Entertainment</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-472'>MGM China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-473'>Wynn Macau Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Garuda Indonesia (Persero)Melco Resorts & EntertainmentMGM China HoldingsWynn Macau Ltd

Morning Views Asia: Garuda Indonesia (Persero), Melco Resorts & Entertainment, MGM China Holdings

While 2020 began on an optimistic note, sentiment has changed significantly with the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has spread rapidly across continents.آ  In our view, key concerns include: [1] potential demand impact on industries with significant human interaction; [2] potential impact on the economy if consumer sentiment deteriorates materially; [3] potential impact on labour force productivity; [4] potential impact on the supply chains of industries; and [5] potential impact on financial markets. We are cautious on companies which are highly levered, cyclical, have limited liquidity or significant debt maturities in the near term. In the report, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on: [1] Europe, China/Asia and the Americas; [2] supply chains; and [3] the sectors and companies under our coverage.

  While 2020 began on an optimistic note, sentiment has changed significantly with the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has spread rapidly across continents.آ    In our view, key concerns include: [1] potential demand impact on industries with significant human interaction; [2] potential impact on the economy if consumer sentiment deteriorates materially; [3] potential impact on labour force productivity; [4] potential impact on the supply chains of industries; and [5] potential impact on financial markets. We are cautious on companies which are highly levered, cyclical, have limited liquidity or significant debt maturities in the near term.   In the report, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on: [1] Europe, China/Asia and the Americas; [2] supply chains; and [3] the sectors and companies under our coverage. 

COVID-19: Impact On Global High Yield - Lucror Analytics

In our view, the government is taking control of Garuda,آ as several announcements have beenآ made by the SOE Minister instead of the company. We deem it unlikely that the Indonesian government willآ allow the nation's flag carrier to fail. Hence, We believe any restructuring package, which could include a maturity extension, would not be too adverse for existing Noteholders.آ We therefore maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the GARUDA 5.95 20 Notes. That said, in light of these developments we move our assessment on the LARA scale to "Medium Risk" from "Low Risk".

  In our view, the government is taking control of Garuda,آ as several announcements have beenآ made by the SOE Minister instead of the company. We deem it unlikely that the Indonesian government willآ allow the nation's flag carrier to fail. Hence, We believe any restructuring package, which could include a maturity extension, would not be too adverse for existing Noteholders.آ We therefore maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the GARUDA 5.95 20 Notes.   That said, in light of these developments we move our assessment on the LARA scale to "Medium Risk" from "Low Risk". 

Garuda - Event Flash - Potential Debt Restructuring - Lucror Analytics

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/airports-of-thailand-aot-yet-to-fall" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36434" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall</a> , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists from China. This insight will discuss the management's willingness to help its tenants' survival during the COVID-19 period actually hurts more than it predicted. 
The management's willingness to provide cushion for its tenants means that it has to lose a defensive part of the business (concession). BUY on weakness? Not yet, unfortunately...

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists from China. This insight will discuss the management's willingness to help its tenants' survival during the COVID-19 period actually hurts more than it predicted. 
The management's willingness to provide cushion for its tenants means that it has to lose a defensive part of the business (concession). BUY on weakness? Not yet, unfortunately...

Airports of Thailand (AOT): Fallen Enough?

Indonesia

Garuda Indonesia is the flag carrier of Indonesia, providing full-service passenger and cargo air transportation across domestic and international routes. Its services also include aircraft maintenance and overhaul, catering, ground handling, and information system services. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1949.

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Garuda Indonesia (GIAA IJ)

Garuda Indonesia - Event Flash - No Default Or Restructuring - Lucror Analytics

CEO Irfan Setiaputra has confirmed that Garuda willآ not default on or restructure the USD 500 mn 2020 Notes, with the airline finalising a term...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Garuda Indonesia (Persero), Melco Resorts & Entertainment, MGM China Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

COVID-19: Impact On Global High Yield - Lucror Analytics

While 2020 began on an optimistic note, sentiment has changed significantly with the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has spread...

Lucror Analytics

Garuda - Event Flash - Potential Debt Restructuring - Lucror Analytics

In our view, the government is taking control of Garuda,آ as several announcements have beenآ made by the SOE Minister instead of the company. We...

Lucror Analytics

Airports of Thailand (AOT): Fallen Enough?

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists...

Henry Soediarko

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