Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Agency Ratings For Asian Issuers (2019) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Garuda’s 9M/19 results were stronger than we had expected, with improvement in the company's operations, decent revenue growth and, more importantly, a turnaround in profitability. The positive FCF was used to pay down debt. It is encouraging to see that the new management team’s commitment to profitability (rather than market share) is paying off. The financial risk profile has improved dramatically with the turnaround in profitability. Without adjusting for aircraft leases, leverage is healthy currently. That said, liquidity remains weak even with the higher cash level. This is due to the large short-term debt, especially with the USD 500 mn 2020 Notes being reclassified (less than a year to maturity). We have revised our forecast upwards to reflect the stronger than expected 9M results.

  Garuda’s 9M/19 results were stronger than we had expected, with improvement in the company's operations, decent revenue growth and, more importantly, a turnaround in profitability. The positive FCF was used to pay down debt. It is encouraging to see that the new management team’s commitment to profitability (rather than market share) is paying off. The financial risk profile has improved dramatically with the turnaround in profitability. Without adjusting for aircraft leases, leverage is healthy currently. That said, liquidity remains weak even with the higher cash level. This is due to the large short-term debt, especially with the USD 500 mn 2020 Notes being reclassified (less than a year to maturity). We have revised our forecast upwards to reflect the stronger than expected 9M results. 

Garuda - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22722'>Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-25901'>Garuda Maintenance Facility</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-227'>Guangzhou R&F Properties</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-12601'>Kwg Property Holding</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Pt Cikarang Listrindo TbkGaruda Maintenance FacilityGuangzhou R&F PropertiesKwg Property Holding

Morning Views Asia: Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk, Garuda Maintenance Facility, Guangzhou R&F Properties

Indonesia

Garuda Indonesia is the flag carrier of Indonesia, providing full-service passenger and cargo air transportation across domestic and international routes. Its services also include aircraft maintenance and overhaul, catering, ground handling, and information system services. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1949.

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Garuda Indonesia (GIAA IJ)

Asia HY Monthly - Agency Ratings For Asian Issuers (2019) - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Garuda - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Garuda’s 9M/19 results were stronger than we had expected, with improvement in the company's operations, decent revenue growth and, more...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk, Garuda Maintenance Facility, Guangzhou R&F Properties

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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