Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

<ul>
<li>There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Soul Patts (SOL AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brickworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2726:1" rel="noopener">Brickworks (BKW AU)</a>'s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6513:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Battery (6937 JP)</a> is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it'll get done.</li>
<li>For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> would/should trade at a NAV premium.</li>
</ul>


There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) &amp; Brickworks (BKW AU)'s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it'll get done.
For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a>'s simple ratio (INDF/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a>) is at a seven-year-plus high, and the implied stub a three-year high. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Indofood and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)'s simple ratio (INDF/Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)) is at a seven-year-plus high, and the implied stub a three-year high. 
Preceding my comments on the Indofood and First Pacific Co (142 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

GMR Hyderabad International Airport / Credit

GMR Hyderabad International Airport (7174677Z IN)

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, China Vanke, Indofood CBP, Pertamina (Persero), Rakuten Group</li>
<li>Treasuries fell, with yields rising yesterday as the market continued to dial back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 49 bps of rate cuts in 2025 as of yesterday (vs. 54 bps as of Tuesday).</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST rose 5 bps to 4.05%, while the yield on the 10Y UST expanded 7 bps to 4.54%. Equities edged higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, China Vanke, Indofood CBP, Pertamina (Persero), Rakuten Group
Treasuries fell, with yields rising yesterday as the market continued to dial back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 49 bps of rate cuts in 2025 as of yesterday (vs. 54 bps as of Tuesday).
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 5 bps to 4.05%, while the yield on the 10Y UST expanded 7 bps to 4.54%. Equities edged higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Co. / Equity Bottom-Up

Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Co. (ULTJ IJ)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk</a> remains one of Indonesia's leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  </li>
<li>The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya</a>'s new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. </li>
</ul>



Ultrajaya Milk remains one of Indonesia's leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  
The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.

Ultrajaya's new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. 


Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - Bringing Milk to the Children

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development, Indofood CBP, Azure Power, Adani Green Energy, Meituan</li>
<li>In the US, treasuries climbed in a holiday-shortened session on Friday, with yields falling 8-10 bps across the curve. The yield on the 2Y UST dropped 8 bps to 4.15%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 10 bps to 4.17%.</li>
<li>Equities rallied, with the S&amp;P 500 rising 0.6% to a new record high of 6,032.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development, Indofood CBP, Azure Power, Adani Green Energy, Meituan
In the US, treasuries climbed in a holiday-shortened session on Friday, with yields falling 8-10 bps across the curve. The yield on the 2Y UST dropped 8 bps to 4.15%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 10 bps to 4.17%.
Equities rallied, with the S&amp;P 500 rising 0.6% to a new record high of 6,032.


Indonesia

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk is a leading Indonesian manufacturer of packaged food products, offering noodles, dairy, snack foods, food seasonings, nutrition and special foods, and beverages. The company also operates a packaging business. It was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP IJ)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

Tricky trade. I'd unwind any stub here purely on optics. The pushback is the stub ops are outperforming. I'd be inclined to go outright long near...

David Blennerhassett

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, China Vanke, Indofood CBP,...

Lucror Analytics

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - Bringing Milk to the Children

Ultrajaya has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business in 3Q2024 and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia,...

Angus Mackintosh

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development, Indofood CBP, Azure...

Lucror Analytics

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