Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> had a poor Q2-Q3 numbers, and investors sold off. </li>
<li>The recent uptick is driven by revenue growth and cost cutting exercises (mainly in wages) that improve margins.  </li>
<li>Productivity may not stay at the same level thus Q2 24 numbers are key. Take your win first. </li>
</ul>



Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) had a poor Q2-Q3 numbers, and investors sold off. 
The recent uptick is driven by revenue growth and cost cutting exercises (mainly in wages) that improve margins.  
Productivity may not stay at the same level thus Q2 24 numbers are key. Take your win first. 


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>On the back of solid 1Q24 revenue (driven mostly by volume) and higher margins, SIDO booked brisk 1Q24 net profit growth of 30% yoy.</li><li>We expect soft input prices to sustain the high margins going forward. As such, we raise our FY24-25F net profit estimates by 2.7%.</li><li>We see risk of rising inflation and weak purchasing power to potentially hinder sales in 2Q24 onwards. Maintain Hold with a higher TP of Rp710.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

On the back of solid 1Q24 revenue (driven mostly by volume) and higher margins, SIDO booked brisk 1Q24 net profit growth of 30% yoy.We expect soft input prices to sustain the high margins going forward. As such, we raise our FY24-25F net profit estimates by 2.7%.We see risk of rising inflation and weak purchasing power to potentially hinder sales in 2Q24 onwards. Maintain Hold with a higher TP of Rp710.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) - 1Q24 Earnings Beat on Solid Volume and Margins

<ul><li>SIDO guided for &gt;10% yoy top and bottom line growth in FY24, expected to be supported by exports, new products &amp; higher outlet productivity.</li><li>With the expectation of higher margins, we raise our FY24 earnings by 12.3%, translating to FY24 core profit growth of +6.6% yoy.</li><li>We think the YTD share price performance has priced in 4Q23 earnings beat and FY24 outlook. Maintain Hold rating with a higher TP of Rp600</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SIDO guided for &gt;10% yoy top and bottom line growth in FY24, expected to be supported by exports, new products &amp; higher outlet productivity.With the expectation of higher margins, we raise our FY24 earnings by 12.3%, translating to FY24 core profit growth of +6.6% yoy.We think the YTD share price performance has priced in 4Q23 earnings beat and FY24 outlook. Maintain Hold rating with a higher TP of Rp600Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) - 4Q23 Earnings Beat and Rosy Outlook, but Already Priced In

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

<ul><li>Following SIDO’s sluggish sales volume in 9M23, we lowered our FY23/ FY24F net profit estimate by -13.5%/ -12.4%.</li><li>Nonetheless, we think the worst should be behind SIDO and expect to see earnings to stabilize in FY24, with an expected 4% volume growth to support 5.4% yoy top line growth and 6.9% yoy earnings growth.</li><li>Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of IDR500.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following SIDO’s sluggish sales volume in 9M23, we lowered our FY23/ FY24F net profit estimate by -13.5%/ -12.4%.Nonetheless, we think the worst should be behind SIDO and expect to see earnings to stabilize in FY24, with an expected 4% volume growth to support 5.4% yoy top line growth and 6.9% yoy earnings growth.Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of IDR500.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sido Muncul (SIDO.IJ) - A Steadier Growth Prospect in FY24

Indonesia

Sido Muncul is an Indonesian company specializing in herbal medicine, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage products. Its product categories include herbal medicine and supplements, such as the well-known Tolak Angin, along with food and beverages, and pharmaceutical items. The company is headquartered in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia, and was established in 1940.

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Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)

Sido Muncul (SIDO): Take Your Win First

After a poor year last year, SIDO operating numbers come back in Q4 23 and even more so in Q1 24 due to revenue growth and cost cutting exercise....

Henry Soediarko