External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SIDO MUNCUL(SIDO IJ)Downgrade on sluggish performanceWeak purchasing power at the grassroots level has restricted SIDO’s sales volume growth this year</li><li>The management’s efforts to push sales of Tolak Angin and maintain its affordability will provide the infection point for volume growth ahead</li><li>Given the soft 2Q23 result, however, we revise down our FY23-24 earnings estimates by 18% and 22%</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

SIDO MUNCUL(SIDO IJ)Downgrade on sluggish performanceWeak purchasing power at the grassroots level has restricted SIDO’s sales volume growth this yearThe management’s efforts to push sales of Tolak Angin and maintain its affordability will provide the infection point for volume growth aheadGiven the soft 2Q23 result, however, we revise down our FY23-24 earnings estimates by 18% and 22%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SIDO MUNCUL (SIDO IJ) - Downgrade on Sluggish Performance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a> in the LQ45 Index next week.</li>
<li>There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.</li>
</ul>



Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will replace Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) in the LQ45 Index next week.
There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 
There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.


​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> performance during COVID was stellar and posted record high revenues and earnings without sacrificing margins. </li>
<li>FY 22's result was the first time in many years that both revenue and net income decelerated. </li>
<li>Current valuations at 19x PER and 7x PBR are not cheap, historically or relative to their peers. </li>
</ul>



Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) performance during COVID was stellar and posted record high revenues and earnings without sacrificing margins. 
FY 22's result was the first time in many years that both revenue and net income decelerated. 
Current valuations at 19x PER and 7x PBR are not cheap, historically or relative to their peers. 


Sido Muncul (SIDO): Past Is Not Indicative of Future

Bumi Resources Minerals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panin-financial-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19472:1" rel="noopener">Panin Financial (PNLF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energi-mega-persada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17534:1" rel="noopener">Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcoal-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28449:1" rel="noopener">Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)</a>.</li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Potential adds are Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ), Panin Financial (PNLF IJ), Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ), Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO).
Potential deletions are Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ), Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ), Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

ESSA Industries Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.</li>
<li>Largest passive inflows are expected to be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-esa-perkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14326:1" rel="noopener">Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.
Largest passive inflows are expected to be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) and Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation

Indonesia

Sido Muncul is an Indonesian company specializing in herbal medicine, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage products. Its product categories include herbal medicine and supplements, such as the well-known Tolak Angin, along with food and beverages, and pharmaceutical items. The company is headquartered in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia, and was established in 1940.

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Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)