Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayamitra-telekomunikasi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Dayamitra Telekomunikasi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A recent meeting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, despite a lingering drag from Starbucks even with the boycott being lifted.</li>
<li>MAPI continues to expand its store network with 650 new stores targeted this year, with 400 under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif</a> and ongoing regional expansion. MAPI's omnichannel strategy is also driving growth. </li>
<li>Inventory levels are higher due to higher store count and ahead of various festive seasons. Inditex brands continue to drive fashion with MAPA showing the fastest growth. Valuations remain attractive. </li>
</ul>


A recent meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, despite a lingering drag from Starbucks even with the boycott being lifted.
MAPI continues to expand its store network with 650 new stores targeted this year, with 400 under MAP Aktif and ongoing regional expansion. MAPI's omnichannel strategy is also driving growth. 
Inventory levels are higher due to higher store count and ahead of various festive seasons. Inditex brands continue to drive fashion with MAPA showing the fastest growth. Valuations remain attractive. 


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Strong Finisher

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>New store openings and cost management initiatives drove solid 9M24 net profit growth of 8.4% yoy. </li><li>We increased our FY24/25F net profit estimates by 12.4% and 10.2%, reflecting solid 9M24 results and expectations of more store openings. </li><li>We expect the upcoming festive events to sustain growth momentum for MAPA. Maintain Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp1,250.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

New store openings and cost management initiatives drove solid 9M24 net profit growth of 8.4% yoy. We increased our FY24/25F net profit estimates by 12.4% and 10.2%, reflecting solid 9M24 results and expectations of more store openings. We expect the upcoming festive events to sustain growth momentum for MAPA. Maintain Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp1,250.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MAP Aktif - Store Expansions and Cost Efficiency Drive FY24-26F Est. And TP Upgrade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. </li>
<li>Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. </li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. 
Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. 

Mitra Adiperkasa remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. 


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year's Resolutions

Indonesia

PT MAP Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk is an Indonesia-based lifestyle retailer specializing in sports, golf, kids, and lifestyle products. The company operates over 1,000 stores across Indonesia and Southeast Asia, offering products under various international and proprietary brands. It was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.

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MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Strong Finisher

A recent meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, driven by s strong seasonal...

Angus Mackintosh

MAP Aktif - Store Expansions and Cost Efficiency Drive FY24-26F Est. And TP Upgrade

New store openings and cost management initiatives drove solid 9M24 net profit growth of 8.4% yoy. We increased our FY24/25F net profit estimates...

BRI Danareksa Research

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year's Resolutions

Mitra Adiperkasa remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price caused by recent boycotts of certain brands an...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Strong Finisher

A recent meeting with Mitra Adiperkasa confirmed that management remains confident about a strong finish to the year, driven by s strong seasonal...

Angus Mackintosh

MAP Aktif - Store Expansions and Cost Efficiency Drive FY24-26F Est. And TP Upgrade

New store openings and cost management initiatives drove solid 9M24 net profit growth of 8.4% yoy. We increased our FY24/25F net profit estimates...

BRI Danareksa Research

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year's Resolutions

Mitra Adiperkasa remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price caused by recent boycotts of certain brands an...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation