Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.</li>
<li>There is passive inflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO)</a> due to index inclusion, and on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a> due to capping changes.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.
There is passive inflow on Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO) due to index inclusion, and on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA) due to capping changes.
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The news that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media's</a> digital platform Vidio has raised an additional US$45m from Sinarmas, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a>, and Bali United should be seen as a positive.</li>
<li>Vidio is Indonesia's leading OTT platform with 61m subs and 2.5m paying subs forecast to grow to 4m by year-end with Champions League, World Cup, and Original Drama driving demand.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media</a> looks cheap relative to its holding in Vidio, which is worth 71% of its market cap, and trading at a discount to 5-year average forward PER.</li>
</ul>


The news that PT Surya Citra Media's digital platform Vidio has raised an additional US$45m from Sinarmas, Grab (GRAB US), and Bali United should be seen as a positive.
Vidio is Indonesia's leading OTT platform with 61m subs and 2.5m paying subs forecast to grow to 4m by year-end with Champions League, World Cup, and Original Drama driving demand.

PT Surya Citra Media looks cheap relative to its holding in Vidio, which is worth 71% of its market cap, and trading at a discount to 5-year average forward PER.


PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - A Vote of Confidence in Vidio

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 29 July.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcoal-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28449:1" rel="noopener">Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (MTEL IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pembangunan-perumahan-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19840:1" rel="noopener">Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) (PTPP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pabrik-kertas-tjiwi-kimia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19184:1" rel="noopener">Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 29 July.
Potential adds are Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ), Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ), Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI IJ) and Mitratel (MTEL IJ).
Potential deletions are Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) (PTPP IJ), Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ), Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ).


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July 2022): Candidates for Change

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media</a> 1Q2022 were more about the future than the past given that its investment in new content and sporting rights depressed margins but should help drive growth.</li>
<li>It has been gaining FTA TV audience share, helping to drive ad revenues. Vidio is seeing strong growth in paying subscribers with 2.5m in 1Q2022 with 4m targeted by December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> looks cheap versus history and should benefit from the economic recovery, with an increasingly diversified exposure across FTA TV and digital through Vidio. </li>
</ul>



PT Surya Citra Media 1Q2022 were more about the future than the past given that its investment in new content and sporting rights depressed margins but should help drive growth.
It has been gaining FTA TV audience share, helping to drive ad revenues. Vidio is seeing strong growth in paying subscribers with 2.5m in 1Q2022 with 4m targeted by December.

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) looks cheap versus history and should benefit from the economic recovery, with an increasingly diversified exposure across FTA TV and digital through Vidio. 


PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Laying Foundations for Growth in FTA and Digital

<ul>
<li>At the January review, there are 2 changes to the IDX30 Index, 5 changes to the LQ45 Index, and 9 changes to the IDX30 Index.</li>
<li>Largest buying impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>Largest selling impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pakuwon-jati-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8550:1" rel="noopener">Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


At the January review, there are 2 changes to the IDX30 Index, 5 changes to the LQ45 Index, and 9 changes to the IDX30 Index.
Largest buying impact will be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Emtek (EMTK IJ), Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and XL Axiata (EXCL IJ). 
Largest selling impact will be on Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ), Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ), Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ) , Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ).


IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: BIG Impact Changes in Limited Time

Indonesia

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk is an Indonesian media and entertainment company engaged in free-to-air television broadcasting, digital advertising, and content production. It operates national TV channels like SCTV and Indosiar, the Vidio streaming service, and other multimedia platforms, creating and distributing entertainment, news, and sports programming. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded on January 29, 1999.

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Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ)

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - A Vote of Confidence in Vidio

Surya Citra Media looks cheap relative to its holding in Vidio, which is worth 71% of its market cap, and it's trading at a decent discount to its...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July 2022): Candidates for Change

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 Index at the July rebalance. The adds outperform the deletion the day after announcement and there is...

Brian Freitas

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Laying Foundations for Growth in FTA and Digital

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) looks cheap versus history and should benefit from the economic recovery, with an increasingly diversified...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: BIG Impact Changes in Limited Time

There are 2 changes to the IDX30, 5 to the LQ45, and 9 to the IDX80. There are a few large impact/flow names on the IDX30/LQ45 indices. The adds...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - A Vote of Confidence in Vidio

Surya Citra Media looks cheap relative to its holding in Vidio, which is worth 71% of its market cap, and it's trading at a decent discount to its...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July 2022): Candidates for Change

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 Index at the July rebalance. The adds outperform the deletion the day after announcement and there is...

Brian Freitas

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Laying Foundations for Growth in FTA and Digital

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) looks cheap versus history and should benefit from the economic recovery, with an increasingly diversified...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: BIG Impact Changes in Limited Time

There are 2 changes to the IDX30, 5 to the LQ45, and 9 to the IDX80. There are a few large impact/flow names on the IDX30/LQ45 indices. The adds...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI