ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> looks undervalued despite its increasing digital credentials through Vidio.com which continue to increase paying subscribers and MAUs</li>
<li>Advertising spend continues to see a strong recovery, even through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> has lost some audience share to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>The company has a significant local content pipeline for 2022, especially for Vidio.com and valuations look attractive versus history plus there is now a market value for Vidio.com.</li>
</ul>



PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) looks undervalued despite its increasing digital credentials through Vidio.com which continue to increase paying subscribers and MAUs
Advertising spend continues to see a strong recovery, even through PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) has lost some audience share to Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ). 
The company has a significant local content pipeline for 2022, especially for Vidio.com and valuations look attractive versus history plus there is now a market value for Vidio.com.


PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Undervalued in Digital

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harum-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1604:1" rel="noopener">Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Given the focus is on liquidity, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as higher probability deletion candidates.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We see Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Harum Energy (HRUM IJ) as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.
Given the focus is on liquidity, we see Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as higher probability deletion candidates.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> just released its results for 9M2021, with its net revenues increasing by +22.5% YoY, reflecting a solid recovery from 9M2020 numbers, despite recent spikes in COVID-19 cases.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a>'s digital media businesses including Vidio, KLY, and Whisper, together with its out of home business under EYE, generated combined revenue increase of +65.7% YoY, with slower grow at EYE, as people practiced work social distancing and work from home.</p>
<p>S<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> have recently seen Affinity Partners invest US$150m in to their jointly-owned and leading Indonesian OTT video-streaming platform Vidio.com, valuing the company at a pre-money valuation of US$750m.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> has also recently become a minority shareholder in RANS Entertainment, a start-up company run by celebrity husband and wife couple Raffi Ahmad and Nagita Slavina. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> continues to generate ROEs in excess of 20% and will likely start to pay dividends again in 2022, as the recovery taKes hold, making it an attractive prospect.</p>
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PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) just released its results for 9M2021, with its net revenues increasing by +22.5% YoY, reflecting a solid recovery from 9M2020 numbers, despite recent spikes in COVID-19 cases.

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)'s digital media businesses including Vidio, KLY, and Whisper, together with its out of home business under EYE, generated combined revenue increase of +65.7% YoY, with slower grow at EYE, as people practiced work social distancing and work from home.
SPT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) and Emtek (EMTK IJ) have recently seen Affinity Partners invest US$150m in to their jointly-owned and leading Indonesian OTT video-streaming platform Vidio.com, valuing the company at a pre-money valuation of US$750m.




PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) has also recently become a minority shareholder in RANS Entertainment, a start-up company run by celebrity husband and wife couple Raffi Ahmad and Nagita Slavina. 
PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) continues to generate ROEs in excess of 20% and will likely start to pay dividends again in 2022, as the recovery taKes hold, making it an attractive prospect.















PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Looking Forward to a Digital Fuelled Future

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Astro Malaysia Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Astro's high-frequency operational data still looks very positive with a high TV viewership share (72%), 3.2 hours average time spent/day that is ahead of 2.16 hours of the FTA, increased MAU by 17% YoY, on-demand shows streamed has tripled to MYR 233 million. </p>
<p>The big announcement is that Astro subscribers can soon access <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix Inc (NFLX US)</a> through its Ultra and Ulti boxes which means investors should not worry that Astro subscribers will be reduced because they want to move to Netflix. Although it is more of a defensive strategy, there is a potential for a small upside as some existing Netflix subscribers in Malaysia may want to subscribe to Astro as they get bangs for their bucks. </p>
<p>Post 50% share price increase, the company is still trading below its pre-COVID-19 level although the business climate has been stable and Netflix is not exactly a competitor to be feared anymore as it has become Astro's allies in Malaysia. The company also generates just shy of 20% FCF yield. There is no reason not to like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astro-malaysia-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1143:1" rel="noopener">Astro Malaysia Holdings (ASTRO MK)</a>. </p>

Astro's high-frequency operational data still looks very positive with a high TV viewership share (72%), 3.2 hours average time spent/day that is ahead of 2.16 hours of the FTA, increased MAU by 17% YoY, on-demand shows streamed has tripled to MYR 233 million. 
The big announcement is that Astro subscribers can soon access Netflix Inc (NFLX US) through its Ultra and Ulti boxes which means investors should not worry that Astro subscribers will be reduced because they want to move to Netflix. Although it is more of a defensive strategy, there is a potential for a small upside as some existing Netflix subscribers in Malaysia may want to subscribe to Astro as they get bangs for their bucks. 
Post 50% share price increase, the company is still trading below its pre-COVID-19 level although the business climate has been stable and Netflix is not exactly a competitor to be feared anymore as it has become Astro's allies in Malaysia. The company also generates just shy of 20% FCF yield. There is no reason not to like Astro Malaysia Holdings (ASTRO MK). 

Astro (ASTRO): Netflix Is Included Soon and High FCF Yield.

Private Capital Markets

<p>With operations across eight countries and more than 400 cities, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> is one of the region’s most valuable start-ups and was the leader in 2020 by GMV in online food delivery and ride-hailing, and by TPV (total processing value) in the e-wallet segment of financial services.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> hosted its inaugural Q12021 results call recently, which saw the senior management presenting the first quarter company performance for the first time. The company provided a detailed and presentation on the progress this year, and was reassuringly open. </p>
<p>The company also filed its F-4 Prospectus in connection with its proposed merger with the Altimeter Growth SPAC, which provides more detail on the company's underlying business prospects, as well as risks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> is making good progress toward listing, which is expected in 4Q2021, even as early as the end of October. </p>
<p>The company exceeded internal expectations for 1Q2021 both for adjusted net sales and adjusted EBITDA. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> saw its 1Q2021 adjusted net sales rise +39%YoY to a record US$507m, with reduced losses on the back of a strong performance in its deliveries business.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> also reported that its spend per user or GMV per monthly transacting user (MTU), increased by +31% YoY, which suggests some synergies between the different verticals across the company's "Super App".</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> has seen its mobility business suffer from the recent COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant mobility restrictions, which are affecting a number of the company's markets but EBITDA margins remain firm.</p>
<p>The company saw its financial services division experience its highest ever quarterly total payments volume in 1Q2021, with +18% YoY growth.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> 's newest division under enterprise and new initiatives saw its GMV increase 3.5x, with a large portion of this division's revenues coming from advertising. </p>
<p>One area where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> can be sure to win supporters are on its ESG credentials given that it's natural fit in its support for the livelihoods of both its driver-partners and its widespread community of small merchants.</p>
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<p>We took a deep dive with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> management to better understand its regional prospects and long-term strategy and came away more positive as a result. </p>
<p>We see the company's increasing collaboration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> as a positive development, which will help fill in some of the gaps to its business in Indonesia.</p>
<p>There are still risks to the company's growth projections and we look to identify where those competitive risks lie. </p>
<p>Having seen <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> go through the mill with the SEC and after detailed and open discussions with the company plus the company's comprehensive 1Q2021 results release, we have turned more positive on the company's prospects. This leads us to be more comfortable with the valuations, as long as the company can achieve its targets. The company's collaboration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> in Indonesia may also yield further positive developments there. </p>
</section>

With operations across eight countries and more than 400 cities, Grab is one of the region’s most valuable start-ups and was the leader in 2020 by GMV in online food delivery and ride-hailing, and by TPV (total processing value) in the e-wallet segment of financial services.



Grab hosted its inaugural Q12021 results call recently, which saw the senior management presenting the first quarter company performance for the first time. The company provided a detailed and presentation on the progress this year, and was reassuringly open. 
The company also filed its F-4 Prospectus in connection with its proposed merger with the Altimeter Growth SPAC, which provides more detail on the company's underlying business prospects, as well as risks. Grab is making good progress toward listing, which is expected in 4Q2021, even as early as the end of October. 
The company exceeded internal expectations for 1Q2021 both for adjusted net sales and adjusted EBITDA. Grab saw its 1Q2021 adjusted net sales rise +39%YoY to a record US$507m, with reduced losses on the back of a strong performance in its deliveries business.
Grab also reported that its spend per user or GMV per monthly transacting user (MTU), increased by +31% YoY, which suggests some synergies between the different verticals across the company's "Super App".
Grab has seen its mobility business suffer from the recent COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant mobility restrictions, which are affecting a number of the company's markets but EBITDA margins remain firm.
The company saw its financial services division experience its highest ever quarterly total payments volume in 1Q2021, with +18% YoY growth.
Grab 's newest division under enterprise and new initiatives saw its GMV increase 3.5x, with a large portion of this division's revenues coming from advertising. 
One area where Grab can be sure to win supporters are on its ESG credentials given that it's natural fit in its support for the livelihoods of both its driver-partners and its widespread community of small merchants.

We took a deep dive with Grab management to better understand its regional prospects and long-term strategy and came away more positive as a result. 
We see the company's increasing collaboration with Emtek (EMTK IJ) as a positive development, which will help fill in some of the gaps to its business in Indonesia.
There are still risks to the company's growth projections and we look to identify where those competitive risks lie. 
Having seen Grab go through the mill with the SEC and after detailed and open discussions with the company plus the company's comprehensive 1Q2021 results release, we have turned more positive on the company's prospects. This leads us to be more comfortable with the valuations, as long as the company can achieve its targets. The company's collaboration with Emtek (EMTK IJ) in Indonesia may also yield further positive developments there. 


Grab - Deep Dive Reveals the Mist Is Lifting

Indonesia

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk is an Indonesian media and entertainment company engaged in free-to-air television broadcasting, digital advertising, and content production. It operates national TV channels like SCTV and Indosiar, the Vidio streaming service, and other multimedia platforms, creating and distributing entertainment, news, and sports programming. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded on January 29, 1999.

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Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ)

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Undervalued in Digital

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) looks like the undervalued child of Emtek (EMTK IJ), despite its move into the OTT and digital advertising space...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Looking Forward to a Digital Fuelled Future

Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) remains a high-quality proxy for the recovery in free-to-air advertising spending in Indonesia, boosted by the...

Angus Mackintosh

Astro (ASTRO): Netflix Is Included Soon and High FCF Yield.

After 50% increase, Astro is still trading below its pre-COVID-19 level although the business climate has been stable and Netflix has become...

Henry Soediarko

Grab - Deep Dive Reveals the Mist Is Lifting

Grab recently announced its 1Q2021 and help an inaugural analyst meeting to present the results and provide an update. We also talked separately...

Angus Mackintosh

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