Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. Given the macro challenges ahead viz, economic recession, prolonged China lockdown, and new olefins capacity addition in Asia</li>
<li>Disappointing 3Q22 results PTTGC reported a net loss of Bt13.4bn in 3Q22(compared to a profit of Bt7.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt1.4bn in 2Q22).The result came out lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>Stripping off the extra items (stock loss of Bt8.1bn, hedging Bt2.1bn etc.) the operating profit also dropped to Bt813m (-90%YoY, -94%QoQ) mainly dragged by frail refinery and petrochemical segment contribution.</li>
</ul>


Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. Given the macro challenges ahead viz, economic recession, prolonged China lockdown, and new olefins capacity addition in Asia
Disappointing 3Q22 results PTTGC reported a net loss of Bt13.4bn in 3Q22(compared to a profit of Bt7.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt1.4bn in 2Q22).The result came out lower than our expectation.
Stripping off the extra items (stock loss of Bt8.1bn, hedging Bt2.1bn etc.) the operating profit also dropped to Bt813m (-90%YoY, -94%QoQ) mainly dragged by frail refinery and petrochemical segment contribution.


PTTGC : Margin Pressure and Huge Stock Loss in 3Q22

<ul>
<li>We downgrade the recommendation to HOLD (from BUY) and revise down target price to Bt43.0 (19% down from previous Bt53.0), to reflect the earnings revision for 2022-23</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings to turn loss We estimate PTTGC to report a loss of Bt8.8bn in 3Q22, compared to a profit of Bt7.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt1.4bn in 2Q22. </li>
<li>Bleak 2023-2024 outlook The 2023-24 earnings should also remain in doldrums, as the softening crude oil price (projected to decline from US$100/bbl. in 2022 to US$85/bbl. in 2024)</li>
</ul>


We downgrade the recommendation to HOLD (from BUY) and revise down target price to Bt43.0 (19% down from previous Bt53.0), to reflect the earnings revision for 2022-23
3Q22 earnings to turn loss We estimate PTTGC to report a loss of Bt8.8bn in 3Q22, compared to a profit of Bt7.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt1.4bn in 2Q22. 
Bleak 2023-2024 outlook The 2023-24 earnings should also remain in doldrums, as the softening crude oil price (projected to decline from US$100/bbl. in 2022 to US$85/bbl. in 2024)


PTTGC : Weak Petrochemical Performance and One-Time Losses in 3Q22

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a>. </li>
<li>As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB). 
As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Positives - For the Pampered Pets

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Thailand's state-owned energy firm <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT (PTT TB)</a></strong> recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.</li>
<li>Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.</li>
<li>PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's state-owned energy firm PTT (PTT TB) recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.
Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.
PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.


PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt53.0.The 2Q22 net profit fall 95% YoY and 67 QoQ to Bt1.4bn(a 7-quarter low)mainly dragged by huge hedging and FX loss</li>
<li>Hedging &amp; FX loss hit 2Q22 profit The 2Q22 net profit fall to Bt1.4bn (-95% YoY, -67% QoQ), a 7-quarter low, mainly dragged by a huge hedging and FX loss. </li>
<li>Excluding the stock gain of Bt3.1bn, hedging loss of Bt12.7bn and FX gain of Bt4.4bn etc., the recurring profit stood at Bt13.7bn (+31% YoY, +120% QoQ), growing YoY and QoQ </li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt53.0.The 2Q22 net profit fall 95% YoY and 67 QoQ to Bt1.4bn(a 7-quarter low)mainly dragged by huge hedging and FX loss
Hedging &amp; FX loss hit 2Q22 profit The 2Q22 net profit fall to Bt1.4bn (-95% YoY, -67% QoQ), a 7-quarter low, mainly dragged by a huge hedging and FX loss. 
Excluding the stock gain of Bt3.1bn, hedging loss of Bt12.7bn and FX gain of Bt4.4bn etc., the recurring profit stood at Bt13.7bn (+31% YoY, +120% QoQ), growing YoY and QoQ 


PTTGC : 2Q22 Recurring Profit Grew from Strong Refinery Performance

Thailand

PTT Global Chemical PCL is a fully integrated petrochemical and chemical company. The Company's products are derived from its main product, Olefins, namely ethylene and propylene.

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PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)

PTTGC : Margin Pressure and Huge Stock Loss in 3Q22

Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. Given the macro challenges ahead viz, economic recession, prolonged China lockdown, and new...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTGC : Weak Petrochemical Performance and One-Time Losses in 3Q22

We downgrade the recommendation to HOLD (from BUY) and revise down target price to Bt43.0 (19% down from previous Bt53.0), to reflect the earnings...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Positives - For the Pampered Pets

I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of...

Sumeet Singh

PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.

David Blennerhassett

PTTGC : 2Q22 Recurring Profit Grew from Strong Refinery Performance

We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt53.0. The 2Q22 net profit fall 95% YoY and 67 QoQ to Bt1.4bn (a 7-quarter low) mainly dragged by huge...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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