Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We upgrade the rating to BUY from HOLD with an unrevised TP of Bt53.0 due to a decent upside from the current share price.The stock performance seems to have factored </li>
<li>Hedging loss to drag 2Q22 profit We expect the 2Q22 net profit slump to a new quarterly low of Bt1.5bn (-94%YoY, -64%QoQ). The YoY plunge will be from the absence </li>
<li>The strong refinery performance with GRM spiking to US$21/bbl (10x YoY,3x QoQ) led by high diesel spread, will be offset by weak olefins segment performance from the decline of plant </li>
</ul>


We upgrade the rating to BUY from HOLD with an unrevised TP of Bt53.0 due to a decent upside from the current share price.The stock performance seems to have factored 
Hedging loss to drag 2Q22 profit We expect the 2Q22 net profit slump to a new quarterly low of Bt1.5bn (-94%YoY, -64%QoQ). The YoY plunge will be from the absence 
The strong refinery performance with GRM spiking to US$21/bbl (10x YoY,3x QoQ) led by high diesel spread, will be offset by weak olefins segment performance from the decline of plant 


PTTGC : GRM Spike Overshadowed by Weak Petrochemical Performance

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Life Insurance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Thai Life Insurance (TLI) is looking to raise up to US$975m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors including GIC have taken up around 54% of the deal.</li>
<li>Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Thai Life Insurance (TLI) is looking to raise up to US$975m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors including GIC have taken up around 54% of the deal.
Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
In this note we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Thai Life Insurance IPO - Can’t Pinpoint the Upside

<ul>
<li>PTTGC reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt4.2bn(-57% YoY, +30% QoQ). The result came out lower than our expectation and 24% below consensus.</li>
<li>Excluding the stock gain of Bt4.9bn, hedging loss of Bt8.6bn and FX gain of Bt595m etc.,  the recurring profit stood at Bt6.2bn (-29% YoY, +74% QoQ).</li>
<li>Dropped YoY mainly due to weak Olefins business performance (lower spreads, 26% YoY decline in EBITDA margin), while improved contribution from performance materials segment from Allnex acquisition in 4Q21 </li>
</ul>


PTTGC reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt4.2bn(-57% YoY, +30% QoQ). The result came out lower than our expectation and 24% below consensus.
Excluding the stock gain of Bt4.9bn, hedging loss of Bt8.6bn and FX gain of Bt595m etc.,  the recurring profit stood at Bt6.2bn (-29% YoY, +74% QoQ).
Dropped YoY mainly due to weak Olefins business performance (lower spreads, 26% YoY decline in EBITDA margin), while improved contribution from performance materials segment from Allnex acquisition in 4Q21 


PTTGC: Weak Petrochemical Spreads Dragged 1Q22 Profit

<ul>
<li>We expect PTTGC to post a weak 4Q21 net profit of Bt6.3bn (-2% YoY, -10% QoQ)</li>
<li>The QoQ drop will be resulted by softened petrochemical segment performance (Olefins  (PE),Aromatics (PX, BZ) and Performance materials (Phenol, Propylene Oxide (PO)),which will be partially offset by improved refinery segment.</li>
<li>We expect the 2022 earnings to decline significantly due to absence of one-time items (gain from divestment of GPSC shares)and weak chemical product margin.However, consolidation of Allnex(acquisition completed in 4Q21) </li>
</ul>


We expect PTTGC to post a weak 4Q21 net profit of Bt6.3bn (-2% YoY, -10% QoQ)
The QoQ drop will be resulted by softened petrochemical segment performance (Olefins  (PE),Aromatics (PX, BZ) and Performance materials (Phenol, Propylene Oxide (PO)),which will be partially offset by improved refinery segment.
We expect the 2022 earnings to decline significantly due to absence of one-time items (gain from divestment of GPSC shares)and weak chemical product margin.However, consolidation of Allnex(acquisition completed in 4Q21) 


PTTGC: Weak Petrochemical Margins to Drag 4Q21 Performance

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Due to delays in securing regulatory approvals, the delisting Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinythai-public-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14107:1" rel="noopener">Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB)</a></strong> took a while, but it is now open.</li>
<li>The Tender offer will close on the 25 February 2022 with expected payment on the 1 March 2022.</li>
<li>The Offer Price of Bt39/share is the highest price since 1995. This is done.</li>
</ul>


Due to delays in securing regulatory approvals, the delisting Offer for Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) took a while, but it is now open.
The Tender offer will close on the 25 February 2022 with expected payment on the 1 March 2022.
The Offer Price of Bt39/share is the highest price since 1995. This is done.


Vinythai (VNT TB)'s Delisting Offer (Finally) Commences

Thailand

PTT Global Chemical PCL is a fully integrated petrochemical and chemical company. The Company's products are derived from its main product, Olefins, namely ethylene and propylene.

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PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)

PTTGC : GRM Spike Overshadowed by Weak Petrochemical Performance

We upgrade the rating to BUY from HOLD with an unrevised TP of Bt53.0 due to a decent upside from the current share price.The stock performance...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Thai Life Insurance IPO - Can’t Pinpoint the Upside

Thai Life Insurance (TLI) is looking to raise up to US$975m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors including GIC have taken up around...

Sumeet Singh

PTTGC: Weak Petrochemical Spreads Dragged 1Q22 Profit

PTTGC reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt4.2bn(-57% YoY, +30% QoQ). The result came out lower than our expectation and 24% below consensus.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTGC: Weak Petrochemical Margins to Drag 4Q21 Performance

We expect PTTGC to post a weak 4Q21 net profit of Bt6.3bn (-2% YoY, -10% QoQ). •The QoQ drop will be resulted by softened petrochemical segment...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Vinythai (VNT TB)'s Delisting Offer (Finally) Commences

This is done and trading accordingly, with a gross/annualised return of 1.0%/5.6%. Unless terms happen to widen from here, this is largely an avoid...

David Blennerhassett

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