Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Oil and Retail Business / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect OR to deliver a 2Q23E NP of Bt2.77bn (-58% YoY, -7% QoQ).</li><li>Its earnings may have been pressured on a YoY basis by the mobility business, whose gross margin per liter is expected to narrow to Bt0.98/liter (vs. the high base of Bt1.61/liter in 2Q22).</li><li>On a QoQ basis, we expect the mobility business to show a weak performance given smaller oil sales volume of 6,897mn liters (-1.5% QoQ), mainly from the commercial market given the decline in diesel sales volume to power plants, as well as a lower gross margin to Bt0.98/liter (vs. Bt1.01/liter in 1Q23).</li></ul>

We expect OR to deliver a 2Q23E NP of Bt2.77bn (-58% YoY, -7% QoQ).Its earnings may have been pressured on a YoY basis by the mobility business, whose gross margin per liter is expected to narrow to Bt0.98/liter (vs. the high base of Bt1.61/liter in 2Q22).On a QoQ basis, we expect the mobility business to show a weak performance given smaller oil sales volume of 6,897mn liters (-1.5% QoQ), mainly from the commercial market given the decline in diesel sales volume to power plants, as well as a lower gross margin to Bt0.98/liter (vs. Bt1.01/liter in 1Q23).

Earnings Review - PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-chemicals-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39791:1" rel="noopener">SCG Chemicals (SCGC TB)</a> (SCGC) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.</li>
<li>SCG Chemicals, a part of the SCC group, is an integrated chemicals player in ASEAN, involved primarily in manufacturing, marketing and selling a diversified range of petrochemical products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



SCG Chemicals (SCGC TB) (SCGC) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
SCG Chemicals, a part of the SCC group, is an integrated chemicals player in ASEAN, involved primarily in manufacturing, marketing and selling a diversified range of petrochemical products.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


SCG Chemicals Pre-IPO -The Negatives - Recent Performance Has Been Weak

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-chemicals-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39791:1" rel="noopener">SCG Chemicals (SCGC TB)</a> (SCGC) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.</li>
<li>SCG Chemicals, a part of the SCC group, is an integrated chemicals player in ASEAN, involved primarily in manufacturing, marketing and selling a diversified range of petrochemical products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



SCG Chemicals (SCGC TB) (SCGC) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
SCG Chemicals, a part of the SCC group, is an integrated chemicals player in ASEAN, involved primarily in manufacturing, marketing and selling a diversified range of petrochemical products.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


SCG Chemicals Pre-IPO -The Positives - A Strong Regional Player

<ul><li>We initiate OR with an Outperform rating (FV: Bt22.16), based on a required rate of return of 5.4%.</li><li>Our valuation matrix suggests that the current share price is fully valued.</li><li>The long- term earnings growth should gain positive momentum, with an expected 16% CAGR in 2023-25E, driven by the recovery in the mobility business and the expansion of the lifestyle business, while the tactical risk is neutral.</li></ul>

We initiate OR with an Outperform rating (FV: Bt22.16), based on a required rate of return of 5.4%.Our valuation matrix suggests that the current share price is fully valued.The long- term earnings growth should gain positive momentum, with an expected 16% CAGR in 2023-25E, driven by the recovery in the mobility business and the expansion of the lifestyle business, while the tactical risk is neutral.

PTT Oil and Retail Business - Empowering All Toward Inclusive Growth

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Refiner/retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>.</li>
<li>The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. </li>
<li>Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. </li>
</ul>


Refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil (XOM US).
The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. 
Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. 


Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based company engaged in the sales and distribution of petroleum products, retail business, and other services, including the operation of fuel stations, convenience stores, and Cafe Amazon coffee shops. The company also provides lube oil blending, bottling, and fuel-related services. It was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR TB)

Earnings Review - PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR)

We expect OR to deliver a 2Q23E NP of Bt2.77bn (-58% YoY, -7% QoQ). Its earnings may have been pressured on a YoY basis by the mobility business

Krungthai XSpring

SCG Chemicals Pre-IPO -The Negatives - Recent Performance Has Been Weak

SCG Chemicals (SCGC TB) (SCGC) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive...

Sumeet Singh

SCG Chemicals Pre-IPO -The Positives - A Strong Regional Player

SCG Chemicals (SCGC) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

PTT Oil and Retail Business - Empowering All Toward Inclusive Growth

We initiate OR with an Outperform rating (FV: Bt22.16), based on a required rate of return of 5.4%. Our valuation matrix suggests that the current...

Krungthai XSpring

Esso Thailand: Bangchak Corp's Takeunder

Without a high degree of clarity on Esso's net debt and working capital adjustments, this is an avoid for arb investors. From an equity valuation...

David Blennerhassett

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