Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Event-Driven

PTT Oil and Retail Business / Event-Driven

<ul><li>Modulus Venture Co., Ltd. (“Modulus,” a wholly owned subsidiary of OR) has acquired a 55.41% stake in Thai Pipeline Network Co., Ltd. (“TPN”), which operates an oil pipeline system from Saraburi to the Northeast, from Big Gas Technology Co., Ltd. for a total value of up to Bt2.2bn (with EGCO holding the remaining 44.59%).</li><li>We view the investment in TPN as a strategic asset that enhances the longterm competitiveness of OR’s mobility business, particularly in the Northeast, which accounts for ~30% of its total oil sales volume (with ~40% market share and ~649 service stations, or ~27% of its nationwide network).</li><li>We expect TPN to have limited contribution to OR’s earnings in the short to medium term, as it remains loss-making.</li></ul>

Modulus Venture Co., Ltd. (“Modulus,” a wholly owned subsidiary of OR) has acquired a 55.41% stake in Thai Pipeline Network Co., Ltd. (“TPN”), which operates an oil pipeline system from Saraburi to the Northeast, from Big Gas Technology Co., Ltd. for a total value of up to Bt2.2bn (with EGCO holding the remaining 44.59%).We view the investment in TPN as a strategic asset that enhances the longterm competitiveness of OR’s mobility business, particularly in the Northeast, which accounts for ~30% of its total oil sales volume (with ~40% market share and ~649 service stations, or ~27% of its nationwide network).We expect TPN to have limited contribution to OR’s earnings in the short to medium term, as it remains loss-making.

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc (OR): Acquiring A 55.41% Stake In Thai Pipeline Network...

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Oil and Retail Business / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect 4Q25E core/net profit to decline QoQ due to thinner EBITDA margins in Lifestyle business, continued losses in Cambodia, and impairment losses in Lifestyle.</li><li>We expect 4Q25E NP of Bt1.9bn (−36% YoY, −27% QoQ), including a Bt340mn impairment loss in Lifestyle business.</li><li>Based on the 4Q outlook, we revise up 2025E core/net profit by +4%/+2% to Bt10.3bn/Bt11.1bn, and maintain our 2026–28E core profit forecast of ~3% CAGR, reflecting Mobility challenges (sales volume/marketing margin pressure from intense competition and Oil Fund management) and business contraction in Cambodia.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q25E core/net profit to decline QoQ due to thinner EBITDA margins in Lifestyle business, continued losses in Cambodia, and impairment losses in Lifestyle.We expect 4Q25E NP of Bt1.9bn (−36% YoY, −27% QoQ), including a Bt340mn impairment loss in Lifestyle business.Based on the 4Q outlook, we revise up 2025E core/net profit by +4%/+2% to Bt10.3bn/Bt11.1bn, and maintain our 2026–28E core profit forecast of ~3% CAGR, reflecting Mobility challenges (sales volume/marketing margin pressure from intense competition and Oil Fund management) and business contraction in Cambodia.

PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS Plc. (OR): 4Q25E Down QoQ (Lifestyle/Global) And YoY (Mobility)

<ul><li>Five-year capex for 2026–30E has been cut by 4% from the previous plan (from Bt60.4bn in 2025–29E), mainly due to lower investment in the lifestyle and global segments.</li><li>2026E capex is projected at Bt18.7bn (about 32% of the five-year plan), including some deferred spending from 2025E.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating (2026 FV: Bt14.50), as our 2025–27E forecasts already reflect the Cambodia contraction and earnings remain unexciting versus peers (flat 2Y core EPS growth).</li></ul>

Five-year capex for 2026–30E has been cut by 4% from the previous plan (from Bt60.4bn in 2025–29E), mainly due to lower investment in the lifestyle and global segments.2026E capex is projected at Bt18.7bn (about 32% of the five-year plan), including some deferred spending from 2025E.We maintain a Neutral rating (2026 FV: Bt14.50), as our 2025–27E forecasts already reflect the Cambodia contraction and earnings remain unexciting versus peers (flat 2Y core EPS growth).

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc. (OR): Five-Year Investment Plan (2026–30E)

<ul><li>3Q25 NP was strong as expected, driven by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold.</li><li>We maintain Neutral with 2026 FV Bt14.50, as current valuation remains neutral amid flat 2Y core EPS growth (2025–27E) and very limited tactical downside.</li><li>OR posted 3Q25 NP of Bt2.6bn, 4% above forecast, aided by a Bt103mn receivable credit reversal.</li></ul>

3Q25 NP was strong as expected, driven by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold.We maintain Neutral with 2026 FV Bt14.50, as current valuation remains neutral amid flat 2Y core EPS growth (2025–27E) and very limited tactical downside.OR posted 3Q25 NP of Bt2.6bn, 4% above forecast, aided by a Bt103mn receivable credit reversal.

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc. (OR): Strong 3Q25 Earnings...

<ul><li>We expect strong 3Q25E net profit, supported by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a 2026 FV of Bt14.50.</li><li>We expect 3Q25E net profit of Bt2.5bn, reversing from a Bt1.6bn net loss in 3Q24 (due to stock loss, low-base GP/liter in Mobility, forex loss, and one-off expenses), up 13% QoQ.</li></ul>

We expect strong 3Q25E net profit, supported by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold.We maintain a Neutral rating with a 2026 FV of Bt14.50.We expect 3Q25E net profit of Bt2.5bn, reversing from a Bt1.6bn net loss in 3Q24 (due to stock loss, low-base GP/liter in Mobility, forex loss, and one-off expenses), up 13% QoQ.

PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS Plc. (OR): Strong 3Q25E...

Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based company engaged in the sales and distribution of petroleum products, retail business, and other services, including the operation of fuel stations, convenience stores, and Cafe Amazon coffee shops. The company also provides lube oil blending, bottling, and fuel-related services. It was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR TB)

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc (OR): Acquiring A 55.41% Stake In Thai Pipeline Network...

We view the investment in TPN as a strategic asset that enhances the longterm competitiveness of OR’s mobility business, particularly in the...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS Plc. (OR): 4Q25E Down QoQ (Lifestyle/Global) And YoY (Mobility)

We expect 4Q25E core/net profit to decline QoQ due to thinner EBITDA margins in Lifestyle business, continued losses in Cambodia, and impairment...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc. (OR): Five-Year Investment Plan (2026–30E)

Five-year capex for 2026–30E has been cut by 4% from the previous plan (from Bt60.4bn in 2025–29E), mainly due to lower investment in the lifestyle...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc. (OR): Strong 3Q25 Earnings...

We maintain Neutral with 2026 FV Bt14.50, as current valuation remains neutral amid flat 2Y core EPS growth (2025–27E) and very limited tactical...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS Plc. (OR): Strong 3Q25E...

We expect strong 3Q25E net profit, supported by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold. We maintain a Neutral rating with a 2026 FV of...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)