Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Oil & Retail Business  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt30,0. OR’s 3Q22 net profit plunged to a 9-quarter low of Bt701m (-63%YoY, -89%QoQ),falling out lower than ours and market expectation.</li>
<li>3Q22 profit hit by weak marketing margin The 3Q22 net profit fall to Bt701m (-63%YoY, -89%QoQ),dragged by weak contribution from mobility business (owing to lower sales and oil marketing margin) </li>
<li>Oil marketing margin came out at Bt0.68/liter (-38%YoY, -58%QoQ),15% beneath our assumption.The dip was primarily from the retail market,both gasoline and diesel had lower marketing margin due to higher cost.</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt30,0. OR’s 3Q22 net profit plunged to a 9-quarter low of Bt701m (-63%YoY, -89%QoQ),falling out lower than ours and market expectation.
3Q22 profit hit by weak marketing margin The 3Q22 net profit fall to Bt701m (-63%YoY, -89%QoQ),dragged by weak contribution from mobility business (owing to lower sales and oil marketing margin) 
Oil marketing margin came out at Bt0.68/liter (-38%YoY, -58%QoQ),15% beneath our assumption.The dip was primarily from the retail market,both gasoline and diesel had lower marketing margin due to higher cost.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a> raised about US$460m in its Thailand IPO. </li>
<li>Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Betagro (BTG TB) raised about US$460m in its Thailand IPO. 
Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Betagro IPO Trading - Seems Fairly Valued

<ul>
<li>We expect the 3Q22net profit to fall 64% QoQ to Bt2.4bn,levelling off from an all-time high in 2Q22,due to stock loss and dip in oil marketing margin to low base </li>
<li>Oil marketing margin to plunge in 3Q22We expect 3Q22earnings to fall 64%QoQ to Bt2.4bn dragged by weak contribution from mobility business owing to lower sales volume and oil marketing margin.</li>
<li>The oil sales volume is expected to be at 6.3bn liters (+21% YoY, -8% QoQ), improving YoY on the back of economy reopening. While drop QoQ due to seasonality (rain).</li>
</ul>


We expect the 3Q22net profit to fall 64% QoQ to Bt2.4bn,levelling off from an all-time high in 2Q22,due to stock loss and dip in oil marketing margin to low base 
Oil marketing margin to plunge in 3Q22We expect 3Q22earnings to fall 64%QoQ to Bt2.4bn dragged by weak contribution from mobility business owing to lower sales volume and oil marketing margin.
The oil sales volume is expected to be at 6.3bn liters (+21% YoY, -8% QoQ), improving YoY on the back of economy reopening. While drop QoQ due to seasonality (rain).


OR : 3Q22 Earnings to Be Hit by Weak Marketing Margin

<ul>
<li>We remain positive on OR’s non-oil segment (mainly café amazon) growth outlook in 2022 and ahead after the site visit at Café amazon concept store and Amazon inspiring campus</li>
<li>Oil &amp; retail business model a wise strategy The non-oil businesses have proven to be successful and contributed to 21% to total EBITDA with more than 25%EBITDA margin in 2022</li>
<li>We expect the EBITDA contribution from non-oil business segment continue to grow from café-Amazon store expansion and higher profitability.The non-oil revenue is projected to grow at 8.5% CAGR during 2022-25E</li>
</ul>


We remain positive on OR’s non-oil segment (mainly café amazon) growth outlook in 2022 and ahead after the site visit at Café amazon concept store and Amazon inspiring campus
Oil &amp; retail business model a wise strategy The non-oil businesses have proven to be successful and contributed to 21% to total EBITDA with more than 25%EBITDA margin in 2022
We expect the EBITDA contribution from non-oil business segment continue to grow from café-Amazon store expansion and higher profitability.The non-oil revenue is projected to grow at 8.5% CAGR during 2022-25E


OR : Enhanced Profitability from Non-Oil Business

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a>. </li>
<li>As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB). 
As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Positives - For the Pampered Pets

Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited distributes petroleum products. The Company offers oil, gas, fuels, LPG, lubricants, and other related items. PTT Oil and Retail Business serves customers in Thailand.

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PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB)

OR : Weak 3Q22 Earnings as Expected

We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt30,0. OR’s 3Q22 net profit plunged to a 9-quarter low of Bt701m (-63% YoY, -89% QoQ), falling out lower...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Betagro IPO Trading - Seems Fairly Valued

Betagro (BTG TB) raised about US$460m in its Thailand IPO. Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand. In this note we...

Clarence Chu

OR : 3Q22 Earnings to Be Hit by Weak Marketing Margin

We expect the 3Q22 net profit to fall 64% QoQ to Bt2.4bn, levelling off from an all-time high in 2Q22, due to stock loss and dip in oil marketing...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

OR : Enhanced Profitability from Non-Oil Business

We remain positive on OR’s non-oil segment (mainly café amazon) growth outlook in 2022 and ahead after the site visit at Café amazon concept store...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

I-Tail Corporation Pre-IPO - The Positives - For the Pampered Pets

I-Tail Corporation, an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the wet pet food category, aims to list in Thailand in 4Q22. ITC is a subsidiary of...

Sumeet Singh

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