Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-financial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9760:1" rel="noopener">Public Financial (626 HK)</a> is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Expect a Scheme Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-bank-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:583:1" rel="noopener">Public Bank (PBK MK)</a>, holding 73.23%.</li>
<li>Public Bank could offer, say $2.50/share, a 60% premium, which still backs out a low trailing P/B of 0.35x. It may well go higher to factor in the headcount test.</li>
<li>Public Financial is super-illiquid. Look away now if this is not your thing.</li>
</ul>



Public Financial (626 HK) is suspended pursuant to Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Expect a Scheme Offer from Public Bank (PBK MK), holding 73.23%.
Public Bank could offer, say $2.50/share, a 60% premium, which still backs out a low trailing P/B of 0.35x. It may well go higher to factor in the headcount test.
Public Financial is super-illiquid. Look away now if this is not your thing.


Public Financial (626 HK) Halted: Public Bank (PBK MK) Takeover Expected

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Among the large-cap EM Asia banks, we recommend CCB in China, HDFC Bank in India, Bank Mandiri in Indonesia and Hana Financial in South Korea</li>
<li>In LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, for its big value attributes and lesser political risk; we turn cautious on Bradesco and stay cautious on Banorte in Mexico</li>
<li>Two large-cap names to watch are Credicorp in Peru and Standard Bank of South Africa; both have challenging macro-economic backdrops but sound “bottom up” credentials</li>
</ul>


Among the large-cap EM Asia banks, we recommend CCB in China, HDFC Bank in India, Bank Mandiri in Indonesia and Hana Financial in South Korea
In LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, for its big value attributes and lesser political risk; we turn cautious on Bradesco and stay cautious on Banorte in Mexico
Two large-cap names to watch are Credicorp in Peru and Standard Bank of South Africa; both have challenging macro-economic backdrops but sound “bottom up” credentials


Large Cap GEM Bank Screener - Our Top Picks

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional rebalance occurring among active EM funds. Out of EMEA and the major Asian nations and in to ASEAN, MENA and South America.</li>
<li>ASEAN reversal shows EM investors moving from underweight to overweight since late 2021, driven by a record ownership and a rising number of funds positioned overweight the benchmark.</li>
<li>Indonesia and Thailand the key drivers and to a lesser extent Malaysia.   The Philippines has been notably absent from the move higher, whilst Singapore allocations fell over the same period.</li>
</ul>


Regional rebalance occurring among active EM funds. Out of EMEA and the major Asian nations and in to ASEAN, MENA and South America.
ASEAN reversal shows EM investors moving from underweight to overweight since late 2021, driven by a record ownership and a rising number of funds positioned overweight the benchmark.
Indonesia and Thailand the key drivers and to a lesser extent Malaysia.   The Philippines has been notably absent from the move higher, whilst Singapore allocations fell over the same period.


Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Combating climate change is a global imperative, and is particularly urgent for Southeast Asia which faces a disproportionate share of the adverse physical, social, and economic impacts.</li>
<li>ASEAN nations have demonstrated a strong commitment to climate action and have made real progress in certain areas, but require substantial climate financing to achieve their targets.</li>
<li>All regional ASEAN banks will play a critical role in climate finance, but those at the forefront of sustainable/green finance are poised to benefit from the region's climate transition.</li>
</ul>


Combating climate change is a global imperative, and is particularly urgent for Southeast Asia which faces a disproportionate share of the adverse physical, social, and economic impacts.
ASEAN nations have demonstrated a strong commitment to climate action and have made real progress in certain areas, but require substantial climate financing to achieve their targets.
All regional ASEAN banks will play a critical role in climate finance, but those at the forefront of sustainable/green finance are poised to benefit from the region's climate transition.


Green Banking in ASEAN: An Assessment of ASEAN Banks' Sustainable Finance Policies

<ul>
<li>As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing allocations.</li>
<li>Indonesia and Singapore are the largest country allocations, Indonesia/Vietnam the key overweights and Malaysia/Thailand the key underweights. Only 20.4% of managers have any Malaysia exposure at all.</li>
<li>Sea Ltd and Bank Central Asia are the key overweights in the region.  Recent activity has favoured Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Central Pattana Pub and Telekomunikasi Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing allocations.
Indonesia and Singapore are the largest country allocations, Indonesia/Vietnam the key overweights and Malaysia/Thailand the key underweights. Only 20.4% of managers have any Malaysia exposure at all.
Sea Ltd and Bank Central Asia are the key overweights in the region.  Recent activity has favoured Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Central Pattana Pub and Telekomunikasi Indonesia.


ASEAN Reversal.  Asia Ex-Japan Managers Raise Allocations

Malaysia

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

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Public Bank (PBK MK)

Public Financial (626 HK) Halted: Public Bank (PBK MK) Takeover Expected

Public Bank could offer, say $2.50/share, a 60% premium, which still backs out a trailing P/B of 0.35x. They may well go higher to factor in the...

David Blennerhassett

Large Cap GEM Bank Screener - Our Top Picks

In EM Asia, we like CCB, HDFC Bank, Mandiri & Hana; in LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, go cautious on Bradesco & remain cautious on...

Victor Galliano

EM Funds Raise ASEAN Allocations

Regional rebalance occurring among active EM funds. Out of EMEA and the major Asian nations and in to ASEAN, MENA and South America.

Steven Holden

Green Banking in ASEAN: An Assessment of ASEAN Banks' Sustainable Finance Policies

ASEAN needs billions (probably trillions) in climate finance, and ASEAN banks are poised to play a vital role. This is an assessment of sustainable...

Kyle Rudden

ASEAN Reversal. Asia Ex-Japan Managers Raise Allocations

As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing...

Steven Holden

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