Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<div><p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.</p></div><div>
<p>China Securities Index Co (CSI) will most likely announce the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 26 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 10 December.</p>
<p>With over 90% of the review period complete, we see 26 potential changes at the upcoming December 2021 review. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 9.30% and will result in a one-way trade of slightly less than US$3bn.</p>
<p>The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential exclusions over the last 3 months but have given up a large part of the gains over the last couple of weeks. Given the trading history of past rebalances, we recommend buying the potential inclusions and selling the potential exclusions over the next couple of weeks and unwinding the positions post the end of the review period. There will then be more trading opportunities as we near the announcement date and implementation date.</p>
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The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.
China Securities Index Co (CSI) will most likely announce the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 26 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 10 December.
With over 90% of the review period complete, we see 26 potential changes at the upcoming December 2021 review. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 9.30% and will result in a one-way trade of slightly less than US$3bn.
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential exclusions over the last 3 months but have given up a large part of the gains over the last couple of weeks. Given the trading history of past rebalances, we recommend buying the potential inclusions and selling the potential exclusions over the next couple of weeks and unwinding the positions post the end of the review period. There will then be more trading opportunities as we near the announcement date and implementation date.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2021): Pullback Provides Entry Point

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>The spread of COVID-19, one of the greatest risks to humankind, has forced governments to enforce strict social distancing measures and lock down cities and countries. Businesses across many industries have been shut due to this crisis, as various areas such as travel, tourism, and international trade have been severely disrupted.</p>
<p>On 14<sup>th</sup> April 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that all the G7 nations had already entered or were entering into a recession. There are reasons to believe the ongoing recession is likely to be worse and more long-lasting than the 2007-2009 recession. The COVID-19- related health crisis is still underway, and it could take years to develop a vaccine. We believe that it is impossible for economics to predict an end to this recession until countries contain the COVID-19 health crisis. Recessions are detrimental to most companies, and they are deadly for some companies. Therefore, in these uncertain times it is rather important to rank the companies based on their bankruptcy risk.</p>
<p>In this insight we try to develop a screening system to identify the potential bankruptcy candidates and the most resilient companies.</p>

The spread of COVID-19, one of the greatest risks to humankind, has forced governments to enforce strict social distancing measures and lock down cities and countries. Businesses across many industries have been shut due to this crisis, as various areas such as travel, tourism, and international trade have been severely disrupted.
On 14th April 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that all the G7 nations had already entered or were entering into a recession. There are reasons to believe the ongoing recession is likely to be worse and more long-lasting than the 2007-2009 recession. The COVID-19- related health crisis is still underway, and it could take years to develop a vaccine. We believe that it is impossible for economics to predict an end to this recession until countries contain the COVID-19 health crisis. Recessions are detrimental to most companies, and they are deadly for some companies. Therefore, in these uncertain times it is rather important to rank the companies based on their bankruptcy risk.
In this insight we try to develop a screening system to identify the potential bankruptcy candidates and the most resilient companies.

Fragility and Resilience Screening System

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>Signed, sealed but how to deliver? </li>
<li>Risky business</li>
<li>Foreign financial services firms rush in</li>
<li>The dangers of democracy</li>
<li>State-owned scams and scammers</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That Matters
Signed, sealed but how to deliver? 
Risky business
Foreign financial services firms rush in
The dangers of democracy
State-owned scams and scammers
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Trade Deal/ Tech War/ Financial Services/ Taiwan/ Scams

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>As per the Financial Times ("FT") <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4f88cb60-f8f7-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71" target="_blank">article</a> dated 24th Feb 2017, electric vehicle ("EVs") manufacturers and battery producers have been scrambling to secure supplies of Cobalt. <br><br>This has been driven by the fact the a handful of hedge funds have purchased and stored Cobalt on expectations that the demand for EVs will pick up. Battery producers such as Panasonic, who supply Lithium Ion ("Li-ion") batteries to the likes of Tesla are hard pressed for supplies.<br><br>As FT reported, prices have risen by more…</p>

As per the Financial Times ("FT") article dated 24th Feb 2017, electric vehicle ("EVs") manufacturers and battery producers have been scrambling to secure supplies of Cobalt.   This has been driven by the fact the a handful of hedge funds have purchased and stored Cobalt on expectations that the demand for EVs will pick up. Battery producers such as Panasonic, who supply Lithium Ion ("Li-ion") batteries to the likes of Tesla are hard pressed for supplies.  As FT reported, prices have risen by more…

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

<p>The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel   exporters to the US.</p><p>Steel exports to US from China are low at about 2.9mt in November. If the US adds more steel tariffs, it will have little impact to the steel market or prices but it will possibly cause a retaliation by the Chinese.</p><p>China only exports 26% of Global Steel Exports, far lower than the 50% of their total global steel production. Most of Chinese steel exports go to other Asian…</p>

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel   exporters to the US.Steel exports to US from China are low at about 2.9mt in November. If the US adds more steel tariffs, it will have little impact to the steel market or prices but it will possibly cause a retaliation by the Chinese.China only exports 26% of Global Steel Exports, far lower than the 50% of their total global steel production. Most of Chinese steel exports go to other Asian…

Market Is Wrong on US Tariffs for Chinese Steel

China

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.,Ltd manufactures and markets fertilizer products. The Company produces potash fertilizers, potassium chloride, and other products. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry also produces salts, chemicals, and other products.

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Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (000792 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2021): Pullback Provides Entry Point

With 90% of the review period complete, we see 26 changes to the CSI300 at the Dec rebal. One-way turnover is 9.3% and the one-way trade is US$3bn....

Brian Freitas

Fragility and Resilience Screening System

The spread of COVID-19, one of the greatest risks to humankind, has forced governments to enforce strict social distancing measures and lock down...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Trade Deal/ Tech War/ Financial Services/ Taiwan/ Scams

China News That Matters Signed, sealed but how to deliver? Risky business Foreign financial services firms rush in The dangers of...

Diana Choyleva

Future of Cobalt Vis-A-Vis EVs

As per the Financial Times ("FT") article dated 24th Feb 2017, electric vehicle ("EVs") manufacturers and battery producers have been scrambling to...

Ishita Jain

Market Is Wrong on US Tariffs for Chinese Steel

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel exporters to the US.Steel exports to US...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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