China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.</li><li class="p1">Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.</li><li class="p1">We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.</li><li class="p1">Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.</li><li class="p1">Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).</li></ul>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div class="content-highlight"><ul>
<li>Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.</li>
<li>The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.</li>
<li>Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.</li>
<li>Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…</li>
</ul></div>


Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.
The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.
Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.
Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…


Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen the worst slump in prices in 20 years and some commodities have been trading at multi-year lows. Lithium has defied the price decline and is currently trading at record highs which has sparked investor interest. This article covers the basics of the lithium industry, its demand and supply mechanics as well as its outlook five years hence.

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen the worst slump in prices in 20 years and some commodities have been trading at multi-year lows. Lithium has defied the price decline and is currently trading at record highs which has sparked investor interest. This article covers the basics of the lithium industry, its demand and supply mechanics as well as its outlook five years hence.

Lithium - An Outlier Among Sinking Commodities

China

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.,Ltd manufactures and markets fertilizer products. The Company produces potash fertilizers, potassium chloride, and other products. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry also produces salts, chemicals, and other products.

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Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (000792 CH)

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer...

Christopher Balding

The Future of Chinese Steel Prices

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for...

Christopher Balding

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears. Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged...

Morningstar, Inc.

China - Late 2012-Early 2013 Repeat

Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle. 2015 is no...

Mark Artherton

Lithium - An Outlier Among Sinking Commodities

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen...

Ishita Jain

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